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Sat Oct 20, 2012 at 07:13 AM PDT

NC Early Voting - 2nd Day Report

by AZDem

Turnout is way up, but Republicans are outperforming their 2008 numbers.  Sunday will see "souls to the polls" rallies, and a likely spike in the African-American percentage.

UPDATE:  Here's an excellent site from tracking North Carolina voting:

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Fri Oct 19, 2012 at 01:39 PM PDT

NC Early Voting - 1st Day Results

by AZDem

I voted today...line was long, wait was about 1 hour.  

Yesterday was the first day of in-person early voting in North Carolina.  So how did we do compared to 2008?  See below the squiggle.

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Mon Oct 15, 2012 at 10:15 AM PDT

Gallup R+2 (and why that's good news)

by AZDem

Today's Gallup tracking poll remains at Romney 49 Obama 47 (LV) and Obama 48 Romney 46 (RV).

Why is that good news (and not for John McCain)?

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Cynicism about government is a plague on our country.  Democrats (who should know better) encourage the attitude that "government does nothing to solve our problems" when we act as if Congress and the Executive branch have ignored global warming.

Below the break, I will try to make the case that our government (and the Democratic Congress of 2009-2010 and the Obama Administration, in particular) have done amazing things to attack the causes of climate change.

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Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 06:23 AM PDT

NC - The ground game is awesome

by AZDem

In 2008, the Obama campaign's ground game in North Carolina was one of the best in the country -- maybe one of the best ever.  In 2012, it's even better.  More volunteers, more staff, and a plan that is producing results.

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Thu Aug 16, 2012 at 05:12 AM PDT

TV Ad Barrage Against Ryan Begins

by AZDem

It's from the DCCC:

DCCC Opens TV Ad Barrage Against Ryan

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At this moment, the top rated diary on the Rec List claims that the Supreme Court rejected Arizona's law requiring proof of citizenship to register to vote.

The diary is based on a misunderstanding of Supreme Court procedure and spreads false information.  I urge the diarist to take it down or change the title and update the diary.

The Supreme Court merely refused to grant a stay of the law pending while it makes its way to the court.  The vote of the justices indicates nothing about how they view the merits of the case.  The vote indicates only that the justices do not view the situation as an emergency and prefer to allow the case to make it's way

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In a little over three hours, we'll know the outcome of the three Affordable Care Act cases.

Either the individual mandate and the ACA will prevail, or Chief Justice Roberts will be quoted against himself.  So, just in case, below is the key quote from the Chief's dissent this past Monday in Miller v. Alabama (the juvenile sentencing case):

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Thu Jun 07, 2012 at 12:04 PM PDT

Wisconsin turnout -- 57%

by AZDem

Remember all that hype election night about turnout in Wisconsin?  It turned out to be good for a gubernatorial election, but fell short of the 60% - 65% predicted by elections officials -- and way short of what the anecdotes were leading us to believe.

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The Securities and Exchange Commission has filed complaints against three former executives at Fannie Mae – its chief executive, Daniel H. Mudd; chief risk officer, Enrico Dallavecchia; and executive vice president, Thomas A. Lund.

Freddie Mac’s former chief executive, Richard F. Syron; Patricia Cook, its chief business officer; and its executive vice president, Donald J. Bisenius, were also named in a separate complaint.

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James Carville's famous 1992 reminder, "It's the economy, stupid," kept the Clinton campaign focused and helped beat an incumbent President.  Will that happen again?

The political and economic winds are very different now than they were then, so it's probably too simplistic to say, "the economy's bad, so the incumbent will likely lose."  For one thing, in 1992 we had just slipped into recession.  In 2012, we are in recovery.  Direction of the economy may matter.

Some recent polls and surveys shed some light.

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Thu Dec 15, 2011 at 01:41 PM PST

Gingrich gets $20M from billionaire

by AZDem

Billionaire Sheldon Adelson has committed $20 million to a Super PAC supporting Newt Gingrich.  The check will be written as early as next week, allowing Gingrich to get on the air in Iowa and New Hampshire to counter the Paul and Perry attack ads that have weakened him.

I don't know if this is a game changer; maybe some of you have insight on that.  But it sure doesn't hurt, and it erases one of the big gaps in the Gingrich campaign.

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