Georgia early voting

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Tuesday October 30, 2018 · 7:10 AM PDT

2018/10/30 · 07:10

I’ve been tracking the Georgia early voting over the last 5-6 days, and the trend is definitely in favor of Abrams! Based on my analysis, there are 1.345 million people who have voted early in 2018. Roughly 30% have not voted in a primary in 2014, 2016, or 2018. Roughly 31% choose a Democratic ballot in the most recent primary in which they voted in 2014, 2016, or 2018, and roughly 39% chose a Republican ballot. The “no party” percent has been increasing daily while the gap between the R and D has been shrinking. If we assume that 63% of the “no party” voters vote Dem (average of the 68% from 2014 and 58% from 2016), then Abrams is only behind by about 1%, an improvement from 3 days ago of 4%.

There is a lot more encouraging data as well if people are interested!

A private market solution for gun owners

CB8421

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Monday December 17, 2012 · 6:28 PM PST

2012/12/17 · 18:28

Short diary - more a thought.

The upcoming battle over gun control is going to be the most serious one in probably 20 years. And while the outcome should involve some ban on automatic weapons and / or multi-round clips.

However, there may also be a potential for a private solution as well which involves personal responsibility of gun owners - "gun insurance". In order to own a gun, you would need to buy insurance. And the insurance companies would perform underwriting to determine the appropriate premium. You want a semi-automatic rifle? You pay a higher premium. You have a mentally ill family member? Maybe you're denied insurance altogether. And the insurance company would report to the authorities why you were denied insurance and they could take action (if necessary). You own a gun with no insurance? You pay a fine, perhaps a hefty one (just like auto insurance).

If a weapon "registered" with an insurance company is used to commit a crime, then the insurance company has to compensate for that crime. If people are killed, the compensation is something similar to life insurance (20x salary or something like that).

While it doesn't solve all the problems, it could be a potential step in the right direction.

Thoughts?

We're not done counting

CB8421

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Wednesday November 07, 2012 · 2:34 PM PST

2012/11/07 · 14:34

As of right now, President Obama leads in the popular vote by ~2.8 million and has 60.4 million votes. When it's all said and done, he will likely exceed 65 million and lead by more than 4 million, or more than 3%. See why below the fold.

CB8421

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Thursday November 01, 2012 · 3:35 PM PDT

2012/11/01 · 15:35

I'm making calls from the Obama website, and I've run into several people that say they have gotten calls from the Democrats every day and want the calls to stop. Have other people run into this? Is there a lack of coordination people the Dems in Florida and the Obama campaign? How should I respond?

The first lady was a little annoyed, but was willing to talk to me. The lady today seemed really pissed.

Any recommendations on how to handle this (other than to just stop calling)?

Action Diary: Bringing it home

CB8421

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Wednesday October 31, 2012 · 10:48 AM PDT

2012/10/31 · 10:48

Including today, there are 7 days until this election season will be over. The polling is looking good, and the early voting is looking great for Obama. But we have 7 days to make sure it happens. There are several things you can do to make it happen (and I'm sure people can add more in the comments):

Poll

5 votes Show Results

What have you done to help re-elect the President

5 votes Vote Now!

What have you done to help re-elect the President

Voted early

3 votes

Made calls

0 votes

Donated

2 votes

Nothing yet, but I plan on doing something this week

0 votes

He doesn't deserve to be re-elected

0 votes

Good news in Nevada?

CB8421

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Tuesday October 23, 2012 · 8:48 PM PDT

2012/10/23 · 20:48

Looking at the latest polls, I'm trying to reconcile the "lack of enthusiasm" meme with what's actually happening on the ground. While Nevada isn't a make or break state (although Berkeley winning would be awesome), it looks like we're seeing the same kind of spike in early voting there as we're seeing in NC and other states. I have no idea if that translates into more overall votes (which would favor Obama) or just more "banked" votes, but here are the numbers in Clarke County through the first 3 days of early voting:

2008: 68,928
2012: 89,778

That's nearly a 30% increase from 2008 to 2012. Whatever is driving that, it sure isn't a "lack of enthusiasm".

I'm hoping that the pollsters are wrong and don't reflect the ground game. I know they didn't 4 years ago, and maybe it's true again this year.

Why are we fighting?

CB8421

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Thursday September 20, 2012 · 2:11 PM PDT

2012/09/20 · 14:11

I just read the diary from "The Bucking Jenny" and felt like there were a couple of things worth saying.

First, it reminded me of the quote from the Statue of Liberty:

"Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"

CB8421

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Sunday July 31, 2011 · 8:25 AM PDT

2011/07/31 · 08:25

I've been watching this "dance" on the debt ceiling closely (as I'm sure many on this site have), and with the passage of a bill on Friday, I think the Republicans have "won" this debate. Follow me below the squiggle to understand my thinking.

CB8421

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Thursday January 13, 2011 · 6:22 PM PST

2011/01/13 · 18:22

During Obama's speech, I flipped to Fox News to see if they were playing it. It looked like they were. I think, to a certain extent, casual Fox viewers, when able to see Obama unfiltered and unedited, question the impression that Fox creates of him. It's a caricature, and when faced when the reality, they may be open to him.

I also caught the tail end of the interview Anderson cooper had with Christine Taylor's parents, where her father called her a "patriot and great American" (and I thought, oh boy, there's a Hannity fan). When Anderson asked him if he thought "vitriol" had anything to do with the shooting, he said "I'm not willing to go there". But he said his wife was thrilled when Obama called them to offer condolences and that Obama "seemed like a decent man". He clearly was having difficulty reconciling his view of Obama based on the Fox news caricature and the reality he was seeing. Feel free to add anything in the comments I might have missed (or if my interpreation is way off).

CB8421

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Wednesday January 12, 2011 · 8:03 PM PST

2011/01/12 · 20:03

In looking at the diaries on the rec list currently, one of them talks about Boehner being at a cocktail party while the President speaks. After watching his speech, somehow that just seems trite to me.

As an unabashed progressive, I believe we as a country can do better. For our children. For our poor. For our mentally ill. The list goes on and on. And, believe me, I've had my share of arguments and screaming with people who refuse to listen to fact and quote Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin.

CB8421

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Monday December 13, 2010 · 5:15 PM PST

2010/12/13 · 17:15

This probably won't be much of a diary since I'm on a plane that is an hour delayed and my phone is about to die. I turned 40 today. On my 30th birthday I had to listen to Al Gore's concession speech. Today, I read about how the Senate has essentially doomed our nation to second rate status by setting up an inter-generational wealth transfer that virtualy guarantee that our children will never achieve the same standard of living we have enjoyed. What happens in 10 years when I turn 50? Official default on our national debt? Significant cuts in Social Security and Medicare?

Sorry for the doom and gloom, but being reminded of what might have been just kind of ruined the mood of the day.

I say take the deal

CB8421

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Monday December 06, 2010 · 4:46 PM PST

2010/12/06 · 16:46

I've been disappointed in Obama the last couple of months, and even posted a diary saying if he wasn't going to fight, maybe he should resign.

That being said, I think we should support the proposal he laid out. It's not great. Maybe it's not even good. But if we get unemployment insurance extension without offsets, continue the lower income and middle class tax cuts including the additional cuts, including the ones in the stimulus package, then there is enough good to offset the bad. But the Republicans need to vote for it, not just not filibuster it and let the Democrats take the heat.

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Georgia early voting

A private market solution for gun owners

We're not done counting

What to do when people ask you to stop calling?

Action Diary: Bringing it home

Good news in Nevada?

Why are we fighting?

It looks like the Republicans have won

I think Obama's speech changes our course

Maybe it's time to rise above

My birthday sucks!

I say take the deal