Back in January I put together a prediction for the November 2012 General Election for the Wisconsin Assembly: January 2012 Predictions
Now that the nomination window closed about 2 weeks ago, I have taken the time to examine who has filed to run and reassess the 99 races. Predictions were made based in part on data from DRA and candidate website information. Feel free to offer suggestions. A list of candidates can be found on the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board website. Updates from January are in bold.
54 Seats are likely to be held by Republicans:
Current R districts that are safe or likely R districts: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 14, 21, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 36, 38, 39, 40, 41, 52, 53, 55, 56, 58, 59, 60, 63, 67, 69, 82, 83, 84, 86, 87, 89, 93, 97, 98, 99. (41 districts)
Current D districts that are safe or likely R districts: 13, 15, 22, 37, 42, 61, 62. (7 districts)
Current R districts that COULD be in play: 50, 68, 69, 75, 93, 96. (6 districts)
38 Seats are likely to be held by Democrats:
Current D districts that are safe or likely D districts: 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 46, 48, 54, 57, 64, 65, 71, 73, 74, 76, 77, 78, 79, 80, 81, 85, 91, 92, 94, 95. (31 districts)
Current R districts that are safe or likely D districts: 44, 45, 47, 51, 66, 86, 90. (7 districts)
Current D districts that COULD be in play: none (0 districts)
That leaves a total of 7 districts that are "in play":
Current R districts that ARE in play: 35, 43, 49, 72, 88. (5 districts)
Current I who acts like an R that is in play: 25. (1 district)
Current D districts that ARE in play: 70. (1 district)
Clearly, these SEVEN seats are the ones Democrats will need to focus on to move toward providing a more balanced Assembly. For being a rather 50/50 state on a lot of matters over time, this analysis clearly shows how redistricting in the hands of a select group of people in one party can skew the balance of power in government.
Once again, here is a link to the Assembly maps, both current map and the one to be used in this year's November election: Wisconsin Assembly and Senate Maps
Details on each of the 99 Assembly seats are below. Again, feel free to offer suggestions. There are probably you know that I don't or possibly errors made below.
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