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When Pew released its poll last week showing a 4-point lead for Romney most folks here consoled themselves that it was either an outdated poll or that its party ID sample was absurdly pro-Republican (at +3R).  There was plenty of truth to this as the poll was mostly conducted on the dreaded Thursday and Friday after the first debate. But the party ID complaints, which suggested that the poll was inaccurate because it showed a more Republican electorate than has ever existed in modern history, were not very convincing.

Party ID tends to shift depending on the mood of the electorate.

Alas, the Washington Post/ABC poll this morning showing Obama up by 3 but with a +9D sample is drawing both relief and disbelief from those unconvinced that the electorate could be more Democratic than 2008, which was + 7D.

Is it even possible for Pew and WaPo to have interviewed the same electorate?

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We've seen this before. The GOP senses a wedge, a disconnect, between those who long for the peace and prosperity of the Clinton years on one hand and the Obama phenomenon on the other. Whether it's the disaffected supporters of Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primary, or simply those independents who fondly remember the deficit hawkism of the 1990s, the Republican Party repeatedly builds up a canyon made of straw to separate out the Clinton model of success from Obama's supposed failures.  

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The conventional wisdom over the last week is that the election of Scott Brown over Martha Coakley has seriously damaged - or at least altered - the prospects for passage of comprehensive health care reform. After all, Democrats needed 60 votes in the Senate for cloture on a conference committee bill still being negotiated with the House. Without 60 votes that is no longer possible.

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Fri Aug 07, 2009 at 10:49 PM PDT

Obama's approval is UP since mobs began

by Elrod

I'm not usually a daily poll junkie but sometimes there are important inflection points that correlate with news events. Obama's approval numbers took a hit right around the Gates controversy. According to Gallup, he bottomed out last weekend at 52% approval, with 41% disapproving.

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Mon Jul 27, 2009 at 11:11 AM PDT

1994 and today - What is different?

by Elrod

As I was reading through this historical timeline on health reform it became quite obvious that this issue has not only persisted for over a century, but has morphed into several side debates. The nature of American health care delivery and health insurance has changed radically over time.  

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Before the All Star Game in St. Louis Barack Obama told White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle that he was going to wear a Sox jacket to the mound. Buehrle didn't believe it but thought it was incredibly cool. I don't know what Buehrle's own politics are, but I know that he really appreciates Obama's love and support for the Sox.

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Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 05:48 PM PST

Obama's Lincoln speech live thread

by Elrod

I noticed nobody had a live thread going for Obama's ongoing speech in Springfield.

It's excellent so far. He is tying Lincoln's quest for Union with Obama's progressive vision for America. He is getting into it now and showing the passion we've seen in the past.

He's connecting the struggle in the Civil War to the economic trouble today.

"We must retake the mountaintop as one nation and one people."

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Wed Feb 04, 2009 at 10:21 PM PST

Obama goes directly to the Post

by Elrod

It looks like President Obama has finally decided to take the gloves off and go over the media pundits. He published an op-ed in today's Washington Post, outlining why the stimulus plan is necessary right now.

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Sat Jan 10, 2009 at 04:10 PM PST

NFL Playoffs Open Thread

by Elrod

Post your reactions, hatreds, loves, dances, bloviations, expletives and hoo-rahs here!

Game 1: Tennessee Titans v. Baltimore Ravens (in Nashville)
Game 2: Arizona Cardinals v. Carolina Panthers (in Charlotte)
Game 3: Philadelphia Eagles v. New York Giants (in East Rutherford)
Game 4: San Diego Chargers v. Pittsburgh (in Pittsburgh)

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I just saw on MSNBC Lynn Sweet mention that Reid and Durbin will talk to Roland Burris on Wednesday, and offer him the Senate seat in return for a promise not to run again in 2010.

Here's a link to Sweet's column.

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Thu Dec 18, 2008 at 08:00 AM PST

Pro-lifers furious at Rick Warren

by Elrod

This seems to be a classic case of "if everybody hates you, you must be doing something right." Not only are supporters of gay rights and gay marriage livid at the selection of Rick Warren for the Invocation at the Inauguration - especially following on Warren's role in supporting the odious Prop 8 - but so, apparently, are pro-lifers.

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Thu Dec 11, 2008 at 07:55 PM PST

Auto Bailout Talks Collapse

by Elrod

My state's Senator, Bob Corker, came up with a union-busting alternative to the auto bailout. Negotiations over the alternative, which actually had some decent provisions regarding bondholders, collapsed tonight. The sticking point was the timing of UAW wage cuts; Corker wanted 2010 and the UAW (and Dodd) wanted 2011 when the contract runs out.

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