A new poll from Emerson University finds that the Democratic nominee, Doug Jones, is in a statistical tie with either potential Republican opponent.
The poll sampled 416 likely voters in the Republican runoff set for Sept. 26 and had a margin of error of 4.8 percent. The poll was conducted Sept. 8-9.
When asked who they would vote for in the Dec. 12 general election between Jones and Strange, 43.1 percent said Strange and 39.6 said Jones, a former U.S. attorney in Birmingham.
Asked the same question with Moore as the GOP candidate, 43.5 percent supported the former Alabama chief justice and 39.9 percent of those polled said they would vote for Jones.
- Source
Doug Jones (website here) is a former U.S. attorney, most notable for prosecuting two KKK members for the 1963 Birmingham Baptist Church bombing, decades after it took place. Jones’ views are extremely progressive for a Democratic candidate running statewide in Alabama; he wants to raise the minimum wage, reduce college costs, stay in the Paris accords, fight to close the wage gap, “defend a women’s right to choose” (although he does not directly mention abortion — it’s Alabama), and says he is open to the public option. He appears to be running an campaign that visits deep-Republican turf; a few weeks ago, when the Association of County Commissioners invited all three Senate candidates to speak in Baldwin County [which voted for Trump 76.5-19.4], Jones made news articles by being the only one to show up. But he has struggled to raise money — he closed July with only $100,000 cash on hand, and does not have support from the DSCC or other national organizations.
Both Republican potential nominees are extremely flawed. Incumbent/establishment candidate Luther Strange is believed to have been appointed to his seat in a corrupt bargain to save ex-Governor Bentley from investigation. The other option is controversial Alabama ex-Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore, most known for refusing federal orders to remove a 10 Commandments tablet from his courthouse, and violating judicial ethics with regard to same-sex marriage. Moore is so polarizing that he won re-election against a little-known underfunded Democrat by only 4% in 2012, despite Alabama being Alabama; he currently leads all polling in the Republican primary runoff.
Emerson’s poll is the only one covering the general election thus far, and it has issues — the small number of voters surveyed, the lack of crosstabs, and the high number of undecideds, although 538 gives them a B rating. Jones is certainly the underdog, but the possibility of a close race or even upset win in Alabama would give Democrats a chance to build momentum for next year, and is one of the few chances we have of retaking the Senate by next year. In order to take the Senate, we will need to not only hold every seat (including West Virginia, Indiana, Missouri, and Montana), take Nevada and Arizona, but also do one of the following:
1. Flip Texas with Beto O’Rourke
2. Flip Alabama in this special election
3. Hope for another option [e.g. if Susan Collins switches parties, or if McCain resigns and opens up his seat for a special election in 2018, etc.]
Although Jones is the underdog, he has a chance of an upset here following in the vein of Scott Brown, and even a close race — the current state of the contest — would send shock waves through Washington. And unlike other races, Jones has not been inundated with donations yet, so sending him money would make a considerable difference. His ActBlue page is here; I sent him $25.