There is an Economic Depression coming, but don't blame it on Wall Street
December 2, 2014
There is a significant amount of whispered panic among financial professionals right now around the world. Previously unshakable correlations are breaking down all over equity, currency and commodity markets. The whispers are getting louder as the days go on: nothing makes sense anymore. Financial instruments are not reacting to events in the way they have for the last sixty years. The markets are sick. A perfect storm is brewing. And no one knows where this leads, or how it ends.
Markets that have been artificially distorted for years by central banks, desperate politicians and powerful algorithmic trading programs have set the world up for the next financial crises. Only this time, don't blame Wall Street for the fallout.
I said I wouldn't post any polls until Sunday, giving polls a chance to calm down
Romney 52-45 among LV
+3 among RVs
50-46 positive approval rating
Gallup just released.
The raw numbers:
Romney 50 (+2)
Obama 46 (-2) Likely Voters
Romney 47 (+1)
Obama 47 (-1) Registered Voters
Approval @ 49% (+1)
Disapproval @ 45% (-2)
Some analysis after the jump...
Not a newsy release, although this poll now encompasses 2 of the 3 post-VP debate days.
LV: Romney 49 (e)
Obama 47 (-1)
Approval 48 (-3)
Disapprove 51 (+3)
More newsy in state polling:
VA Romney 49% to Obama 47%
FL Romney 51% to Obama 47%
OH Obama 48% to Romney 47%
If PPP (a D house poll) is showing a 4 point lead, and Rasmussen is showing a 1 point lead in Ohio, it's probably safe to assume the lead is roughly 3 points or so based on previous results. It is difficult to see how Romney could win the election without winning Ohio.
On the positive side, a very strong Saturday rolled off for Obama from last saturday and it ended shifting the numbers by only a point. It would be a sweet bookend for the progressive movement to win the electoral college but lose the popular vote after what happened in 2000. I'm guessing conservative arguments would be disoriented and lacking reason the day after, and in their anger they would try de-legitimizing Obama right away. Block text from The Crome Dome from Rasmussen after the jump.
First numbers are now up, link up shortly. Debate drew less than 30 million viewers, 40 million less than the 72 million in 2008.
Registered Voters: O 48 (-2) R 46 (+1).
LV: R 48 (e) O 47 (-1)
Contra Kos, this poll is now entirely post Thursday-Fri-Sat. The full weight of the jobs report, the Big Bird foolishness, and Romney's mea culpa about the 47% is contained therein. Sun-Mon-Tue sample. Tomorrow is likely to be a Romney gain, because a very strong Sunday (for some reason Obama did very well in most polls on Sunday with Monday numbers looking like Saturday's) for Obama is dropping off tomorrow.
Gallup switched today to it's likely voter model, and as the most watched/historical poll in the business it has a lot of sway.
I was expecting an Obama lead of +1 today because the huge Romney day on Friday fell off. But the numbers stayed the same - a tie. Without leaners it's 48-46 Romney. Also, Romney's support is more firm with 45% of the electorate saying they will definitely vote for him, as opposed to 41% of Americans saying they will definitely vote for Obama.
Obama was always vulnerable to huge swings in voter enthausism since so many of his voters are people who never really came out to vote for anyone else before - young voters and minorities. In my opinion, the easiest way they can regain control is to fire up his base by throwing it some red meat. Rasmussen after the jump...
I have thought about the next few weeks, so I am going to put on my Nostradamus hat on and share some thoughts on things to look for over the next two weeks.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.
These results are based upon nightly interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, only about two-thirds of the interviews for today’s update were conducted after the presidential debate. Sunday morning’s update will be the first national polling based entirely upon post-debate interviews.
Still, the numbers reflect quite a debate bounce for Romney. Heading into Wednesday’s showdown, it was the president who enjoyed a two-point advantage. Today is the first time Romney has been ahead by even a single point since mid-September. See daily tracking history. As with all bounces, it remains to be seen whether it is a temporary blip or signals a lasting change in the race.
Both men have solidified their partisan base. Romney is supported by 89% of Republicans and Obama by 88% of Democrats. Among those not affiliated with either major party, Romney leads by 16.
The generation gap remains wide. Obama leads by double digits among those under 40. Romney leads by double digits among those over 40.