Hi Folks,
Just thought I'd do a little of the legwork in re-calibrating these most recent Swing State Polls based on expected turnout according to the 2000 exit polls. This has been a common thread for those of us whacked-out pollwatchers from DailyKos, MyDD, and Emerging Democratic Majority.
The bad news for us Kerry folks is that most of these internals were pretty accurate...a couple were off, but not always for Kerry. Here are the results
AZ: Bush, 50%-39%; readjusted, Bush 50%-37%
MO: Bush, 49%-41%; readjusted, Bush 49%-41%
NH: Bush, 49%-40%; readjusted, Bush 48%-39%
NV: Bush, 50%-45%; readjusted, Bush 49%-44%
OH: Bush, 49%-42%; readjusted, Bush 47%-44%
WV: Bush, 45%-44%; readjusted, Bush 47%-35%
So as you can see, OH is the only one that went favorably toward Kerry, while WV moved sharply toward Bush (the internals showed a much-higher "Democratic identification" percentage than did the 2000 exit polls.) Not good news...but thought we should all see what's what.