Well, that's it then. The Senate has scheduled a vote for tomorrow on the gun safety legislation, beginning with the Manchin-Toomey Amendment, and it is being briefed that both sides expect it to fail. Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, who has been heroic throughout this process, has basically admitted as much, wondering publicly if he was naive to think that 90% of public opinion would be enough to move the GOP. That means that the last, best hope of getting any gun reform at all, however small, is now dead - for now.
First thing's first: Let's remember who to blame here. This isn't Harry Reid's fault; there is no Earthly way that the votes existed to eliminate the filibuster entirely, and that's what this would have needed.
This isn't the fault of Red State Dems - true, with the bill's impending failure, 4 or 5 of them will probably vote against it, but they probably would have supported it if there had been 60 votes for it. It's cowardly, yes, but it's not the reason why this bill is going to fail. And fair play to Joe Manchin and Pat Toomey - not something I say often - who tried their best to let something pass, especially hard for Manchin who was obviously genuinely moved by Newtown.
This is, plain and simple, the fault of the cowards in the GOP who could not bring themselves to support a measure with 90% public backing. It's particularly the fault of so-called moderate Senators like Dean Heller and Jeff Flake who could not manage to vote for something co-written by a Tea Partier - and for the contemptuous lies which featured in their excuses, such as Heller's 'fears' of a 'gun registry' resulting from a bill which explicitly bans the creation of one.
They met the families of Newtown, they've seen the impact which this would have. Many of them have claimed to support expanded background checks in the past. And all of them have made the cheap, pathetic, political calculation that the lobby for gun makers has more impact than the people, that public opinion doesn't matter and people's lives don't matter; what matters is getting that precious "A" ranking. They think that the NRA can hurt them far more than the passive majority.
So it's up to progressives to prove them wrong. It's up to progressives across the nation to ensure that this issue doesn't die; that liberals pick Democratic candidates who can win and who support curbing America's epidemic of gun violence. And then that they get those candidates elected - and they beat the crap out of people like Dean Heller of Nevada and Jeff Flake of Arizona who think that they can ignore the will of the people whenever they want.
Look, I don't currently live in the USA, though I hope that's about to change soon and a lot of my family do. I live in Northern Ireland - a place where we know ourselves what these murder weapons can do. And my girlfriend comes from a place ten minutes away from Newtown, CT. When the next Newtown comes along - and we pray it won't, but we know that it will - then progressives need to be ready. And they need to fight. And they need to make sure that next time isn't like this time.
The cowards lobby has won the battle. But by God they won't win the war.