I have just finished analyzing new voter registration in Oregon by county and by political party from the just released numbers for August 2004. On the surface, the situation appears to be favoring Democrats, but that view is deceptive. From June to August 2004 Democrat registration increased by 26,072, while Republican registration grew by 13,965. There is nearly a two to one Democratic advantage in new voter registration. The results are particularly striking in Multnomah County (Portland), with Democrat registration up 11,119 and Republican registration up 1,786.
More telling, however, is a comparison of August 2004 with November 2000. Democratic registration surpasses 2000 in only nine of thirty-six counties. Republican registration already exceeds 2000 totals in twenty-three counties. Democrats are still 2,860 registrants short of their 2000 total, while Republicans are already 689 ahead of their 2000 total. Therefore, registration gains main so far in 2004 have just been playing catchup to reach 2000 levels. Increased advantage will come only from the gains in registration made during September and October before registration closes October 12.
The significant efforts by groups registering Democratic voters are vital, but they have not yet paved the way for victory. Only a concerted effort during Sept./Oct. will provide an improved registration margin. Thus plenty of reason for guarded optimism in Oregon, but no reason for jubilation just yet.