A lot of Democrats and progressives seem to be down in the dumps with the current electoral cycle, and rightfully so. It looks like we're going to lose quite a few seats in the Senate, and we may even lose seats in the House. The optimism of 2008 is gone, it almost feels like it's all for nothing and people are left wondering what to do with the Republicans in such a good position despite their insanity.
I think part of the problem is that people are thinking too short-term. What started in 2006 and continued in 2008 is a process, and a long one at that. It wasn't accomplished in a few years, and won't be fully accomplished in a few more. So let's look at where we've been and where we're going.
Yes, 2010 was a horrible year. Practically everything we seemed to do in 2006 and 2008 was wiped out (though not all of it - Obama was still President and the Senate remained in Democratic hands, even as the House and several states fell, not to mention localities). Everyone seemed to think 2008 was a new beginning, but it wasn't; it was the beginning of a process.
Progress is a process, and it happens slow. Big gains aren't sustainable; little ones are. 2010 really was a failure, a failure that's going to define this decade in American politics, but the recovery has already begun. 2012 was a better-than-expected year for Democrats, as Obama won a relatively easy reelection and we actually expanded our Senate majority (side note: would we have a shot at retaining the Senate this year if 2012 wasn't such a success? Probably not). We also picked up a few House seats. Not enough for a majority, but the key is that the pickups are sustainable, as are the unwritten gains in districts we narrowly failed to pick up. We won't be losing most of those seats anytime soon.
Now, we're in 2014, and things don't look great. The Senate map is tough, but we knew it would be like that before 2010 even happened. We won seats in red areas, and that's hard to maintain, but our 2012 gains mean that we have a really great shot at retaining the upper chamber (it helps that the Republicans are still crazy). Obamacare is starting to work, and it's not going to be the big negative everyone was predicting. As far as the House goes, it probably isn't in play, and we have a chance of losing a few seats. That said, we have some strong recruits across the country, and a gain of a few isn't out of the question. We're also poised to pick up some of the Governor's mansions that we lost in 2010, including some in swing states. An election cycle doesn't have to be a blowout in our favor to be a success; given the maps that we're facing, a holding the Senate and winning a few gubernatorial seats back would be a major success.
That brings us to 2016, where I do think we're poised to make drastic gains. Obama isn't going to drop the ball like Bush did, and Hillary Clinton will be the strongest (non-incumbent) Presidential nominee either party has had since Eisenhower. The enthusiasm generated by her campaign should help us take back the House, expand our Senate majority and put us on the path towards a sustainable majority in both Houses, along with the continued demographic changes the country is undergoing. And hopefully, oh please, hopefully, 2010 will be burned in our memories so we can remember how to govern in the 2017-2018 term. Hopefully we're wise enough not to let 2018 be 2010 (or 1994). And if we can maintain our gains in 2018 and 2020, particularly on the Governor's end of things, we can finally ungerrymander the states and take away the massive edge Republicans have in the House and state legislatures.
Slow and steady wins the race, guys. The gains we made in 2006 and 2008 weren't sustainable. In some cases, weak candidates were swept into office, who were swept out by equally weak candidates in 2010. The only reason they're still around is gerrymandering, and even that couldn't save a few of them. Just remember: things are moving in our direction, maybe not at the speed we'd like, but at a speed that's sustainable. We are in the right, they are in the wrong, and people are realizing it. Change isn't done in one or two election cycles, but takes decades, and recovering from a misstep can a decade by itself. So let's keep marching on, slow, steady and confident, face down each challenge one by one and remember that neither victory nor defeat are reasons to stop fighting for what we believe in. If we can do that, then we're on a good path. Thanks for reading.