Last week computer was 2-2 with two wins straight up,, but losing twice on underdogs who didn't beat the spread. Nice job, computer.
CIN @ HOU*: HOU 5 (3)[3]
ATL* @ NYG: NYG 2.5 (3)[ATL 7]
PIT @ DEN*: PIT 3 (9)[11]
DET* @ NO: NO 7 (11)[17]
I went 3-0, deciding not to bet on the CIN v HOU game. I took NYG and NO winning and beating the spread; and I took DEN with the points and won a smaller side bet on DEN winning straight up. So, computer, you owe me skittles.
Last week, homefield was king. Will this weekend's hometeams be able to benefit from their homefield and a week off?
We still have four QBs left who have won Super Bowls-- Brady (3), Rodgers (1), Manning (1), and Brees (1) --and these Super Bowls are all recent, many players on those teams also have rings. GB was 10-6 last year and then ran the board to win the SB; NO beat the favorite IND in the SB two years ago; NYG beat the favored NE three years ago; NE went 14-2 last season and then lost at home to the NYJ.
Heartbreak and destiny!
Saturday
NO v SF*: SF 1 (NO 4)[10]
DEN* v NE: NE 11 (13.5)[21]
Computer says SF wins at home against NO, and DEN loses on the road but only by 11. Computer initially gave NO a 1-point win, but then added in SF's point-boost for playing at home, and so finds SF winning by .8-1.4 points.
Last week I crushed computer, 3-0 to 2-2. I'll be making my own picks again this week, while chewing hundreds of skittles and talking trash to computer with my mouth full.
NO v SF:
The only playoff game this weekend that matches two teams that didn't meet during this regular season. Saraceno sees Brees as too accurate to be stopped by a great SF defense; and SF offense is not considered high-octane enough to come up with enough points to win in the inevitable shootout. I agree mostly with all of those scenarios, so I am surprised that the spread is only 4 points.
I see two distinct games here: NO off v SF def, and SF off v NO def. SF has to win both of those games; NO only needs to win the NO off v SF def game in order to get to the NFC championship game.
NO wins
SF will be able to keep NO below 80 total yards rushing. Brees won't throw into double coverage, and his INTs are usually the result of him not seeing the coverage. I expect SF to blitz and suffer if they don't. In the first half, avoiding pressure from the SF defensive line will give Brees enough time to pick the safest throws to make. NO offense wants quick scores in the second half and then rushes exclusively in the fourth period. They'll take no chances in the fourth quarter, settling for FGs once they have a 14-poont lead.
If NO has a 'prevent-defense' I haven't seen it. NO defends their lead by stopping the rush with a predatory 5-2 front: the two linebackers are quick to blitz, back the line, or drop back into coverage. Once the run is stopped, NO guesses pass and blitzes again, coordinated with man-to-man coverage on WRs coming off the line. Last weekend, in the second half with a lead, whenever NO stopped DET's first-down rushes for little or no gain, they came with a blitz on second down, guessing a Stafford pass was next. NO defense wins by clogging the run and waiting for hurried passes to pick off.
SF wins
SF offense wins by staying with the run, controlling the clock, throwing when it's not expected, moving the chains, and burning up 7-8 minutes for TD scoring drives. Should SF fall behind early or late, they still must rush the ball and burn the clock. Alex Smith must run out of the pocket early several times; 4 rushes for 40 yards from him will be a SF win. SF defense wins by stopping NOs rush, blitzing on second and thid downs, and by intercepting Brees as he tries to score to keep pace. Stopping the rush, btw, will still lose SF the game if they can't stop what comes after-- the pass. The only way to stop Brees is to know when he's going to pass and then blitzing while covering WRs man-to-man from the line of scrimmage. All day long, which is why the SF offense has to be able to run the ball and burn the clock.
SF kicked off to start 90% of their games; on Saturday SF will likely have the ball at the start of the 2nd half. SF's dream scenario has them with the ball with about 4:30 left in the 1st half, and driving for a touchdown with less than 20 seconds left in the half. Receiving the 2nd half kickoff, SF then executes a fifteen-play scoring drive that takes the game to 7:30 in the third. Whether the scoring happens like this or not, SF needs their defense to be off the field for large periods of time during the game: they'll need the rest and the opportunity to make defensive adjustments between possessions.
My pick
I'm going to take SF at home to win, so I'll also take SF with the four points. As a caveat, you should know that I am a SF Niners fan, so my pick is laden with bias. SF needs a lot of help to win this, and NO needs to be out of the game early in the fourth quarter in order to do the self-destructive things that seal a loss, ie, interceptions, abandoned rushing game, going for it on 4th and long. NO has a lot of poise and they're not likely to hurt themselves with penalties: SF will get a few close PI calls to go their way and that will figure in their win.
NO 24 SF 35
DEN v NE:
Saraceno sees a runaway game here, with DEN unable to turn keep pace with NE. I spent a few hours watching the Replay of their game from week 15, NE pulling away 41-23. NE offense will play the same game on Saturday, and will likely put up > 35 points against the DEN defense.
DEN can beat this spread for about three and a half quarters. But they are losing big to great offenses this year. DEN's 8 losses this season: 4 (0 playoff teams) by a combined total of 15 points; and 4 (3 playoff teams) by a combined total of 105 points. DEN was 1-3 against this year's playoff teams: CIN 22 DEN 24.
NE is 1-2 against this year's playoff teams, losing to PIT and NYG, but winning NE 41 DEN 23. Some people want to give a lot of weight to NE's recent playoff record at home, 0-2 since their last win in the January 2008 AFC championship. These people make the point that a homefield advantage that hasn't been advantageous recently says something about the team in question and their readiness in the playoffs. These people sound to me like they live in Colorado.
I see DEN scoring often against NE's defense, and rushing for 100-200 yards in a loss, but 200-300 yards in a win. I don't see the NE defense needing to shut down Tebow completely: NE will count on DEN playing from behind all day, and NE defense will play for interceptions rather than sacks.
NE wins
NE scores at will, in both 15-play and 3-play drives. DEN pass-rush sacks Brady several times in the 1st half, but blitzes in the 2nd half result in NE TDs. NE defense stops DEN rush with a 5-2 front; Tebow still gets loose but his long run of the day is <10; passes into the endzone are defended by NE, DEN more FGs than TDs in this game. DEN more effective with the run but has to play catch-up-fast, NE secondary intercepts Tebow twice. NE wins when DEN plays the same way against them as they did during week 15.
DEN wins
Early drives result in TDs; early NE turnover results in maximum DEN points. DEN rushes for 200* yards. NE secondary moves up to help stop rush: DEN quick scoring pass. DEN wins by scoring TDs rather than FGs; DEN wins by NE offense turing chiefly to the pass. DEN dream game scenario has DEN secondary intercepting Brady, and DEN turns those picks into points. DEN offense controls the game by rushing the ball, and throwing unexpectedly on first down when NE defense is thinking run.
NE offense must throw to keep pace: DEN secondary sits on pass, DEN blitzes Brady. NE behind by 14+ to start second half, offense becomes predicatable, Brady sacked and intercepted. No third quarter points for NE, DEN stretches lead to 24 at the start of the 4th quarter. NE pass attack ineffective without a rushing attack. Three-and-outs number in the double digits.
My pick
I'll take NE and give up the 13.5 points, final score DEN 29 NE 45.
Sunday games preview and picks coming up.
