Scoring Eurobonds

davidshor

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Monday June 20, 2011 · 11:53 AM PDT

2011/06/20 · 11:53

A quick look at who wins and who loses if Eurozone Sovereign were consolidated and paid collectively.

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday May 17, 2011 · 5:16 AM PDT

2011/05/17 · 05:16

Stochastic Democracy aggregates polls, makes graphs, and does some regressions to get an idea about the Democrat's chances in 2012.

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday May 17, 2011 · 4:56 AM PDT

2011/05/17 · 04:56

Early voting has started for the Miami mayoral special election, and I can't find any information to help me know who to vote for. Who's progressive? Who's viable? Will there be a run-off? What about the amendments?

Canadian Federal Election Forecasts

davidshor

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Tuesday April 26, 2011 · 2:59 PM PDT

2011/04/26 · 14:59

Forecasts for the May 2nd Canadian Federal Election. Click here to see a larger version.

Probability Distributions for each Party's Seat Count

Stochastic Democracy's Bayesian Canadian Election Model forecasts a 30% chance of a Conservative majority, and forecasts that the NDP are now just as likely as the Liberals to form the second largest party in Parliament.

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday March 16, 2011 · 2:25 PM PDT

2011/03/16 · 14:25

Maps and Graphs looking at yesterday's Mayoral Recall on a precinct level. Cross-posted at Stochastic Democracy.

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday March 03, 2011 · 5:50 PM PST

2011/03/03 · 17:50

Stochastic Democracy compiles and aggregates all available Senate and Gubernatorial polls to estimate Democratic Performance under varying turnout scenarios.

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Registered Voter Polls, the Enthusiasm Gap, and the 2012 Presidential Election

davidshor

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Wednesday March 02, 2011 · 8:17 PM PST

2011/03/02 · 20:17

Stochastic Democracy compiles all available 2012 matchup polls and uses them to forecast electoral breakdowns for Obama vs Palin, Gingrich, Huckabee, and Romney.

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Forecast: Dems hold house by 5, lose 5 Senate Seats

davidshor

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Monday July 12, 2010 · 3:06 PM PDT

2010/07/12 · 15:06

Stochastic Democracy, in collaboration Professor Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, have launched a new Election Forecasting System for House, Senate, and Generic tracking.

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See more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday July 05, 2010 · 3:39 PM PDT

2010/07/05 · 15:39

Stochastic Democracy is launching an Forecasting System tomorrow, featuring district level House, Senate, and National level races via a Bayesian Multi-level model that takes into account Pollster Bias (House Effects) and Pollster inaccuracy (PIE).

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Congressional Districts, colored by estimated Democratic Vote

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Histogram of the number of Democratic Seats in November

In the meantime, top-level results and preliminary graphs are available below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.Com for feedback purposes.

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday June 30, 2010 · 10:41 AM PDT

2010/06/30 · 10:41

Stochastic Democracy looks at Micheal Weissman's Statistical Critique of Former Kos-Pollster R2K (Research-2000) and finds them it somewhat questionable and not terribly convinving.

See more below the fold

davidshor

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Sunday June 20, 2010 · 5:29 PM PDT

2010/06/20 · 17:29

Stochastc Democracy explains the difference between House Effects(Bias) and Design Effects(PIE), problems with Nate Silver's Pollster Ratings system, and a new and more accurate way to estimate both in real-time.

One of the key findings is that in election horse-race polls, PIE does not differ significantly among Pollsters, with House effects(Bias) being more pronounced then previously thought.

title=
Estimated Pollster Introduced Error vs Number of Polls in Obama Approval Database

See graphs, House-Effect Tables, and more, below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

davidshor

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday May 05, 2010 · 8:05 AM PDT

2010/05/05 · 08:05

A collection of all the main forecasts for the UK election today, as well as discussion about the merits of each model.

Read more below the fold or at StochasticDemocracy.com

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Scoring Eurobonds

Can the Democrats Take Back the House?

Miami Special Election

Canadian Federal Election Forecasts

Miami Mayor Recall Election driven mostly by Republicans

Preliminary 2012 Senate and Governor projections

Registered Voter Polls, the Enthusiasm Gap, and the 2012 Presidential Election

Forecast: Dems hold house by 5, lose 5 Senate Seats

Preliminary House/Senate Forecasts

R2K Polling Fraud Case Not Convincing

How to Detect a Bad Pollster

UK Election Round-Up