New Bush Strategy -- Triangulate?

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Sunday August 01, 2004 · 6:50 PM PDT

2004/08/01 · 18:50

Is Bush going to move back to the center and offer some interesting domestic initiatives? Time says (and Drudge has parallel info) that BC04 serve up with a domestic, policy-wonkish agenda designed to appeal to swing voters. Quite a change from the "War President" plus "fire up the base" strategy he had been using. As even BC04 pollster Matt Dowd more or less admits, that strategy hasn't worked as well as hoped.

In particular, Bush's advantage on terrorism has narrowed far more than anyone expected, and that's forcing major rethinks of strategy.

Time: "How Bush Plans To Win"
http://www.time.com/time/election2004/article/0,18471,674761-1,00.html Read More

Iraq Casualty Rates, State By State

dburbach

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Tuesday June 22, 2004 · 8:38 AM PDT

2004/06/22 · 08:38

Out of curiousity, I calculated the per-capita losses in Iraq for each state. That is, the number of soldiers killed as a function of the total population of the state.

For the majority of the states the casualty rate is pretty even, varying by a factor of about 2. There are some particularly fortunate states, and a few whose soldiers have not been so lucky.

Overall average: 2.92 killed in action / 1,000,000 population

Largest Burden: Vermont 14.8 / million

Smallest Burden: Hawaii 0.8 / million

FULL LIST (PDF FILE)

Right-wing spin on Chalabi, and responses

dburbach

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Saturday May 22, 2004 · 12:05 PM PDT

2004/05/22 · 12:05

Thought I'd post some of the spin I've been seeing from neo-con pundits and the right-wing hoi polloi at various sites, and some suggested responses.

Some themes I've seen (really!):

Clinton was the one who first brought Chalabi on-board
This just shows how incompetent the CIA is, since it's their job to prevent intelligence disasters like this
This is just a CIA-backed smear campaign
The INC wouldn't have had to turn to the Iranians if only the US had supported them enough.
But Colin Powell and the State Dept are dealing with the Iranians, too!

My responses below. Read More

New OR Poll: Bush +5, but screwy numbers

dburbach

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Saturday May 15, 2004 · 7:52 AM PDT

2004/05/15 · 07:52

New Oregon poll, from Riley for KGW. Among LVs, it shows Bush 44%, Kerry 39%, but I have some questions about this poll.

http://www.kgw.com/news/pdf/maypoll_complete.pdf Read More

LA Times: Patriot Act helps Bush, not hurts

dburbach

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Monday April 26, 2004 · 7:44 AM PDT

2004/04/26 · 07:44

A week or so ago there was a discussion about the politics of the Patriot Act here. There is a story in Sunday's LA Times on this, which concludes that the Act is a net plus for Bush -- and that public support for it has been growing, not declining. The article notes that Kerry has been toning down his rhetoric about the Act.

Despite Criticism, Patriot Act Gaining Popularity

(LA Times article, reprinted by the no-registration required Seattle Times) Read More

How much security could $87 billion buy?

dburbach

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Monday April 19, 2004 · 10:35 PM PDT

2004/04/19 · 22:35

What sort of security would $87 billion buy?

Back in the fall, I did a rough calculation of what sort of homeland security measures one could have funded with $87 billion -- Bush's supplemental request for Iraq.

The answer is, $87 billion buys you a LOT of security programs. Read on for the list...
Read More

GOP Conv: Bush acceptance speech at ground zero

dburbach

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Friday February 27, 2004 · 5:04 AM PST

2004/02/27 · 05:04

There are some lines I thought even the Bush campaign wouldn't cross, but I guess I was wrong.

I really, really hope this is satire or disinformation, but The Hill is usually a decent source.

The HIll on plans for GOP Convention Read More

Miranda's statement re doc theft -- harsh stuff!

dburbach

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Monday February 09, 2004 · 4:37 PM PST

2004/02/09 · 16:37

For those of you following the story of GOP Judiciary Committee staffer obtaining and leaking Democratic documents, it will be worth reading the statement that Manuel Miranda released explaining his resignation.

http://www.nationalreview.com/document/miranda200402091056.asp

In it, he
-insists that it was the Dem's responsibility to secure their computer files and that he would have been justified in handing over their whole hard drive to the Washington Post
-he threatens the Dems with releasing more incriminating info, and insinuates that there was illegal influence peddling with respect to Dems and interest groups opposing nominees
-accuses the Dem senators of "pandemically" leaking classified information
-if you read between the lines, takes a slap at Sen. Hatch for hanging him out to dry rather than praising him for his intel haul and telling the Dems to go stuff it.

Pretty harsh stuff for a guy who's just been designated the fall guy by powerful people, given that there is still an inquiry going on that could lead to criminal charges. You would think he wouldn't go out of his way to piss off Hatch at this point, and if I may make some inferences about his personality given the tone of this memo, I suspect the Dem staffers really would be happy to nail this guy.

Miranda better hope that he's right about knowing computer law better than Sen. Hatch and his staff do.....

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