First, this isn’t an excuse to get complacent. Get out the vote.
This is more of a response to Nate Silver and his (in my opinion) the borderline obsession with national numbers vs. where it matters — the states.
Yes, we all love polls. My own mood ebbs and flows as wildly as a Rasmussen tracker whenever the latest poll of Florida is released. I ride high on the good polls, sink a little lower on the not-so-good ones.
But here’s why I’m not fretting, and why I firmly believe we may already know who is winning this thing. And its based on real numbers, not polls.
Three states where voters are already making it happen:
Nevada (6 EV)
There doesn’t seem to be anyone better than John Ralston when it comes to the ins and outs of Nevada politics. As he’s long maintained, Clark County is the key to winning the state. This is Vegas, and home to about three-quarters of the state’s residents. Obama racked up a big cushion here in 2012 on his way to a 6-point electoral rout, and Hillary looks to do the same this year. So far, she’s on pace — although Republicans may be be doing slightly better than they did four years ago. As of yesterday, according to Ralston, the Democrats had around a 49,000 vote lead in Clark County and are running a little ahead in bellwether Washoe County — which is good. Democrats would like to get the Clark numbers +60,000 or higher to cancel out the expected rural advantages for Trump on election day. With a week to go, it looks like they have a chance.
On a side note, Ralston has not called Nevada for Clinton yet but says he will likely have something important to say on Sunday assuming trends continue.
Also, we’ve probably all seen Nate Silver’s 538 post on Nevada’s early vote. In that piece, Ralston tells Silver: “I’ve been following these early voting numbers for a few cycles and they predict a lot in Nevada: the 2012 Obama victory, the 2014 red wave. Unless there are seriously strange voting patterns going on, this is just about over here for Trump.”
Ralston calls it “simple math” and if he says Hillary has the big edge here, it’s probably true.
so Nevada, check.
Colorado (9 EV)
More than a million people in this beautiful state have already cast their ballots (1,067,685 according to the SOS page) which is about one-third of all registered voters. Democrats hold a slight 37% to 35% edge currently. About 26% of the returns are from unaffiliated voters, who are the largest electorate in Colorado, second to Democrats.
From what I can tell, the Clinton camp has felt optimistic about their chances in Colorado for some time. But Colorado really does appear to be a place where the polls have legitimately tightened to around 2-4 points. Bill and Chelsea are headed there this week, as is Mike Pence, which should give a clue that there is still some vote-getting needing done.
The state moved to all mail-in process in 2016, which makes return-watching even more meaningful as we head toward the end of the week. The theory is that Democrats tend to vote heavier as the week wears on. A lot will depend on how those unaffiliated voters end up breaking.
In the past, Democrats have caught up to and surpassed early vote deficits on Election Day. They don’t have this luxury in 2016. Democrats need to get those ballots turned in.
One interesting caveat is that, unlike Washington State, ballots must arrive at the election office by Nov 8 at 7 p.m., meaning they have to be mailed … very soon, like tomorrow, or dropped off at designated polling sites. This is different that the mail-in procedures in Washington State, where the ballots simply have to be postmarked by the election date. I can foresee this potentially causing some issue if (God forbid) we end up have another Florida 2000 scenario, but in Colorado.
so … Maybe check? (If anyone has some additional insight into Colorado, I’d love to hear it)
Virginia (13 EV)
We will win Virginia, big. Check.
* * ** *
If Clinton can win these three states, which I believe she is poised to do and may even become clear through the data before Nov. 8, she can lose: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Iowa, and New Mexico (she’s not losing NM) and still get to 270 electoral votes. If she were to somehow lose Colorado, winning any one of the above-mentioned states would be enough to put her over the line. IFor the record, I think she wins them all.
So keep an eye on Colorado and Nevada...