Tweet! Tweet! Tw ..... Huh?

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Monday December 19, 2022 · 12:07 PM PST

2022/12/19 · 12:07

Though I have had a Twitter account since the early days, I never really spent much time with it until the 2020 election runup. I thought then it was pretty much broken already.

Participating did nothing to dissuade me. Twitter is great for “unfiltered access” to public figures. Which is not, for me, an unmitigated good. At. All.

What’s next? So far I’ve been on Mastodon, and Post. I love the idea of Mastodon — open source, decentralized. And Post … well, too soon to tell. But the interface is clean.

And they’re both absorbing the Twitter diaspora.

Anyone tried any of the others?

And — perhaps to save a lot of people some of the early growing pains — let’s post the new follow links below. I’ll start:

@jeff_schult

on both Post and Mastodon (and Twitter, for that matter.)

post.news/…

and

mastodon.world/…

See you there.

90 Percent Likely ...

jeffbot

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Thursday October 13, 2016 · 12:34 PM PDT

2016/10/13 · 12:34

Dammit, Jim. I'm a scientist. Not a journalist!

Did the sun just explode?

Will it rain at 3:30 p.m. today at my house?

Will the Post Office still be open when I get there?

...

Could Donald Trump be elected?

As The New York Times points out daily, the odds of Trump winning are about the same as an NFL placekicker missing from 42 40 38 41 36 34 yards out.

Okay, I’m posting because I am becoming cross at how breezily statistics are being used pretty much everywhere. I’d say almost 62 percent of statistical citations in the media are … spurious.

Even if there is a 90 percent chance of Hillary winning, I would like to point out that is the same chance that the $20 bill in your wallet or purse would test positive for cocaine. (At least it would have in 2009, according to CNN.)

At some point, does the Times set the odds of Trump winning at about the same as … missing an extra point? Having a kick blocked and run back for a touchdown?

I figured this, back in July, as a Clinton landslide. Now, she has run an utterly lackluster campaign, IMHO. I miss Bernie. But Trump has been worse than I imagined, by far.

It isn’t close. But pinning a day-to-day likelihood on it seems to me to be almost deliberately trying to fool at least some of the people most of the time.

And thanks, xkcd.

</rant>

General Kane's War on Heroin in PA

jeffbot

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Wednesday June 18, 2014 · 5:55 PM PDT

2014/06/18 · 17:55

Kathleen Kane may not be running for governor of Pennsylvania. But whomever ends up being the Democratic candidate with the honor of retiring Tom Corbett is going to owe her.

Though I haven't lived in Pennsylvania since high school -- well, I went to high school there. I still care. I keep track. And the job that Kane has done as the state's first female elected Attorney General is phenomenal. 2020 or 2024, anyone? Emily's List has been talking about her in that way.

There's a great piece of journalism over at Lawdragon.com about the kind of impact "General Kane" is having. See:

The Wrecking Crew: Attorney General Kathleen Kane’s War Against Heroin

Maybe we can't, never could "win the war" on drugs. But with strong, pragmatic leadership from a great Democratic attorney general, Pennsylvania is making strides.

... Last August, as the unit was still getting established in the greater Hazleton area, Police Chief Frank V. DeAndrea Jr. already liked what he was seeing.

DeAndrea is a wiry, intense man with a love of history – and a knack for hyperbole. In his nicely appointed office in Hazleton City Hall, DeAndrea likens Kane and her MSCU concept to General William T. Sherman and his then-modern methods of using raw numbers to outflank the opponent, a break from traditional war strategy that altered the Civil War.

"She's a modern day General Sherman," DeAndrea gushes. "She is changing the way urban drug and drug-crime battles will be fought in the future. She's Mrs. Clean, and she's coming to scrub the place. And when she leaves, she's gonna leave the tools behind for us to protect the community."

According to DeAndrea, Kane deserves credit for "recognizing a problem and coming up with a solution that goes against what everyone else is doing."

Again, the whole story on Kane's efforts is at Lawdragon.com.

Rwanda’s Long Road to Justice

jeffbot

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Wednesday October 30, 2013 · 10:10 AM PDT

2013/10/30 · 10:10

It is 20 years ago, a generation, and the details for most everyone who wasn't there are pretty sketchy. You remember Rwanda, but what do you remember? There was a genocide, something about Hutus and Tutsis. You remember that much, perhaps, if you are old enough. There was a wave of horrific violence, mass slaughter with guns. And machetes. People remember machetes.

I am not sure which of these things says more about humanity, and society -- that such a thing can happen, or that those who are alive afterward cope, grieve, seek justice, rebuild. I would like to think it is the latter. In the United States and Europe -- we know the story of Germany and its evolution and generational change since World War II.

Mostly, we do not know about the last 20 years in Rwanda.

In April, Lawdragon magazine editor-in-chief John Ryan went to Rwanda. This week, we have 10,000 words from him about his trip, long-form journalism at its best.

jeffbot

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Saturday November 03, 2012 · 12:44 AM PDT

2012/11/03 · 00:44

According to Everybody's Pal, Nate Silver, there is currently an ~~83.7~~ 85.1 percent chance that nothing in this diary will ever be true.

Which is why it's worth posting, now ... it's not funny without just that little hint of menace, which will be gone in a few days.

I originally wrote this about ten days ago, before Sandy. A friend said to me, "That's hilarious. AND you're freaking me out."

So ... have fun. Don't freak out. And vote if you haven't.

jeffbot

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Saturday October 20, 2012 · 1:32 PM PDT

2012/10/20 · 13:32

Mitt Romney wants more women to choose him. I get that.

But anyone can see, using the simple method of channeling his personality into a typical online dating profile format, that this guy matches up nearly perfectly with that guy who suckered your best female friend, that time, when she wasn't sure what she wanted.

http://www.salon.com/...

The red flags wave over this profile as though it was in Beijing.

jeffbot

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Friday August 31, 2012 · 2:10 PM PDT

2012/08/31 · 14:10

The first thing that occurred to me when I read about Clint Eastwood debating an empty chair was that I had heard this story before ...

And I had.

Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., in Robert Kennedy and His Times, wrote about the televised 1964 U.S. Senate debate between Sen. Ken Keating (R-NY) and an empty chair, representing Robert F. Kennedy's supposed "ruthless contempt" for the voters of New York.

jeffbot

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Tuesday March 10, 2009 · 1:48 PM PDT

2009/03/10 · 13:48

"Alaskans may vote conservatively but the state that brought us Gov. Sarah Palin leads the nation in memberships per capita to the world's largest site for swingers, adult chat and adult personal ads. The nation's capital, Washington, D.C., ranks third.

http://www.intotemptation.net/...

I blogged this on my own site, obviously, but I thought it would be fun to discuss the political implications, or lack of them, over here. ;-)

jeffbot

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Wednesday July 23, 2008 · 5:46 AM PDT

2008/07/23 · 05:46

I don't see another diary about this yet, so am shooting it out ... the story and discussion of it, to my mind, belongs top o' Page 1, everywhere.

"Salon has uncovered new evidence of post-9/11 spying on Americans. Obtained documents point to a potential investigation of the White House that could rival Watergate."

What's more important -- Salon has uncovered evidence that a Democratic Congress is contemplating really doing its job starting in 2009 -- assuming we can make the gains in the Senate that seem possible.

A new Church Committee?

Flip ... or just read the article, and hope. Civil libertarians, don't give up.

jeffbot

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Friday July 18, 2008 · 6:37 AM PDT

2008/07/18 · 06:37

I'm used to Air America on the AM dial -- I catch Rachel, Thom, etc. on 1400 WHMP in Northampton, MA all the time. But I'd never heard of Mario Solis Marich until this week, when, for work reasons, I had to tune him in ... and there he was talking about my favorite personal pet topic -- medical tourism.

Poll

20 votes Show Results

Medical Tourism is:

20 votes Vote Now!

Medical Tourism is:

Just a symptom of how messed up the U.S. healthcare system is

3 votes

A lifesaver for many healthcare consumers

7 votes

A potential boondoggle for multinational providers and insurance companies

0 votes

Part of the cure and part of the problem

1 vote

All of the above

9 votes

FISA and the Convention

jeffbot

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Monday June 23, 2008 · 10:03 AM PDT

2008/06/23 · 10:03

Yes, I'm still going to vote for Obama. Let's get that out of the way immediately.

Also, before someone goes way off on me, I have followed and do understand the FISA debate and the legislation, from beginning to end.

BUT ...

jeffbot

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Tuesday June 17, 2008 · 9:51 AM PDT

2008/06/17 · 09:51

This is a pet topic of mine, since I wrote a book about the subject.

So this news isn't unexpected to me, but I suspect it's an eye-opener to anyone for whom healthcare costs are an issue, meaning everyone. The AMA today released guidelines for traveling out of the country for healthcare.

"We need to address the cost of care in the U.S. and cover the uninsured so that every American who needs health care can get it right here at home," said AMA Board Member J. James Rohack, M.D. "Until there is significant action at home, patients with limited resources may turn elsewhere for care. It is important that U.S. patients have access to credible information and resources so that the care they receive abroad is safe and effective." (emphasis mine)

Guidelines on the flip ...

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Tweet! Tweet! Tw ..... Huh?

90 Percent Likely ...

General Kane's War on Heroin in PA

Rwanda’s Long Road to Justice

A Romney Administration: The First 90 Days

Mitt Romney's OKCupid Dating Profile

When the Empty Chair was RFK's

Alaska, Wyoming, Washington D.C. Top ‘Swinging States’ List

Salon: Exposing Bush's historic abuse of power

Progressive Talk ... and medical tourism?

FISA and the Convention

AMA Not Against Medical Tourism