Crossposted to Blue Campaign Solutions
I did a brief analysis of the current state of the Wisconsin Supreme Court race this morning. The method is not tremendously advanced, but if what we see holds up, David Prosser should be concerned. The numbers used are from the AP.
- The current vote margin is 585 votes, with 34 precincts left to report, according to AP.
- Of those 34 remaining precincts, 32 are in counties Kloppenburg is winning.
- If all of the remaining precincts report the same numbers as the others in the county, Kloppenburg will pick up 1,671 votes.
- The margin would then be about 1,086 votes to Kloppenburg's favor
Recount scenario - (source)
- The rule in Wisconsin is if the margin between Prosser & Kloppenburg is .5% or less, the recount will be done for free.
- That .5% line equates to roughly 7,300 votes at the moment.
- Clearly the final numbers will be within that margin, and there will be a recount.
Wisconsin uses Direct Recording Electronic Method in its voting systems and require a Voter Verified Paper Audit Trail when conducting elections.From people who know much better than I, it seems not everyone is DRE - at least some use optically scanned paper
We created a spreadsheet with these numbers for tracking purposes. I will update through the day - let me know in the comments if I've missed anything - thanks.
Update #1:
I'm wondering what the average recount change is for DRE w/ paper recounts, like they have. Would be interesting to know, if anyone has insight or a source on it.
Update #2:
(h/t: ZigZig) - There seems to be some question about Dane and Sauk counties. Dane says all precincts have reported, but AP still has one outstanding. Sauk may have also reported everything already, assuming they have 31 instead of 39 precincts.
Please take all of these numbers with a grain of salt - doing the best we can here.
Update #3:
(h/t: Atilla the Honey Bunny) - Apparently AP doesn't have 200 more votes for JoKlo that Dunn county is reporting. That would take Prosser's lead to just 356, assuming it's correct.
Update #4:
AP updated numbers - margin is now 835 votes.
Update #5:
Changed spreadsheet to reflect Dunn county results. Drops margin to 606, with estimated possible pickup for JoKlo at 668.
Update #6:
Kloppenburg takes the lead! Now only 5 precincts remaining, notwithstanding AP's count of 7. This will literally be an "every vote counts" situation.
Reportedly, 2 of remaining precincts in Milwaukee will be for Prosser. Also 1 in Jefferson (which went for Prosser), Taylor (went for Prosser) and 1 in Juneau (JoKlo). This will be remarkably close.
Update #7:
The spreadsheet and AP are somehow off now. AP has JoKlo by 224 now. Still waiting on the 2 Milwaukee precincts and Jefferson.
Update #8:
Had to get some work done today. Looks like the counting is done now - JoKlo +222 from AP. On to the recount!
