Originally, I was going to make this diary about predictions for the 2014 Senate and House races. Then I realized that I just could not do it. It’s way too soon. Unfortunately, it’s impossible to see from the vantage point of Sept. 2013 what kind of year 2014 is going to be. For example, by this point in 2009, everyone knew the Republicans would gain seats in the House 2010, but certainly not enough to retake it, and there still seemed like a distinct possibility the Republicans would lose seats in the Senate. Conversely, no one saw the results of 1998 or 2002 coming at this point - everyone assumed the elections would tilt against the president’s party.
So, instead of predictions on individual races, I decided to rate the likelihood of five scenarios for 2014. In this diary, a wave election is defined as an election where a party captures 10 or more house seats and four or more Senate seats from the opposing party, and either wins four or more governors seats or keeps control of three-fifths or more of the total governorships seats in the country (thus accounting for years like 1934, when the Democrats already controlled so many governors offices it would have been hard for them to win more than the one they picked up – they already had 36 out of 48!)
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