This is my first attempt at armchair political analysis. Let’s see how this goes…
I was trying to think about the logic in John Boehner “picking” Paul Ryan to lead the budget negotiations. In trying to analyze a decision that a person makes, I try to put myself in that person’s shoes. I try to ask myself what motivates an individual.
My major assumption on what motivates the Speaker is that he really doesn’t care if taxes go up, but wants to keep his Speakership and avoid a primary challenge.
So what would cost him his job? Probably any deal that goes off the reservation on taxes. The reason is because most of the House did not pay any real political price for their economic positions (I understand gerrymandering played a role). My speculation is that true conservatives think they have been validated.
Right now with a roughly 50 seat majority and a smaller majority in 2013, Boehner needs to get 218 votes for a deal. If he gets roughly 28-30 GOP votes to vote with a 100% unified Democrats in the House, he gets a deal but loses his job and probably faces a primary challenge.
So how does he salvage this? Well, stick Golden Boy Paul Ryan in the negotiations. The base still loves him. They blame Romney for their problems.
Three things could happen:
1) The GOP gets what it wants which are no tax cuts and spending cuts.
Golden Boy looks like a hero. Boehner looks great and retains his Speakership. Boehner convinces Ryan to run for Majority Leader and takes out Cantor. Ryan looks like the clear front runner for the GOP nomination 2016. Even if Cantor runs for the Speakership, as the captain of a successful House ship, Boehner would have built up enough “street cred” to fight off a challenge.
2) The GOP caves and agrees to tax hikes/spending cuts, the balanced approach. With egg is on everyone’s face, Paul Ryan gets the blame. His future in the party is tarnished and the pest goes away. Or, everything stays the same with Boehner having cover because the true conservatives also went along with tax hikes on the wealthy.
3) The talks completely crash and burn. We either go off the cliff, hill, staircase, curb whatever you want to call it which gives Boehner leverage with the party to become the adult and negotiate a deal. It maybe enough to keep his Speakership and avoid a primary challenge. Ryan is discredited as a leader and Boehner could wrest control of the House from the true believers.
I know that there are more nuanced outcomes than this. But, they could all rotate around these 3 universes.
Either way the Speaker is in a tough spot. But by putting Ryan in this, it is a win-win for him. If we call this “winning.”
