Others will have better analysis later in the redistricting cycle, but with a few large pieces (IL, CA, TX) starting to fall into place and others somewhat predictable I was feeling impatient and decided I wanted to scope out what seats the Democrats would need to pick up to take back the house next year.
I don't know how to do the nifty embed-a-spreadsheet so you'll have to click through here for the full list of seats including Safe D and Safe R. The Lean and Toss-up seats are below. Seats with approved lines are in bold, speculative seats are in italics, those with maps proposed but not approved are in normal text.
Some explanation of assumptions:
Georgia focuses on adding a new GOP seat and incumbent protection, Barrow in GA-12's fate is unclear. Kentucky and Tennessee do incumbent protection, though they may go after Jim Cooper in TN-05. Assuming a 7-1 Maryland map. Assuming something like a 8-4-1 NC map with the swing seat being depending on how aggressively they go after Shuler and Kissell.
Pennsylvania is -1 D, I eliminated PA-12 and numbered down, though they could also go after Altmire. Ohio is -1D, -1R, eliminating OH-13 (drawn with OH-10) and OH-18 (drawn with OH-06). New York is assuming -1D, -1R, with elimination of NY-09 (drawn with NY-08) and NY-25 (drawn with NY-24) and numbering down from there. New Jersey is very difficult to predict... I am guessing -1R, in this case I eliminated NJ-12 and threw Holt into a toss-up seat with Lance.
Arizona is hard to guess. I made AZ-09 a toss-up, guessing that either it will be Dem-leaning or it will make one of the existing GOP-held seats more vulnerable. Florida is a big question mark, it's hard to imagine a result less favorable than +1D, +1R here, with +2D or maybe even better possible. California seats are numbered according to this DKE data.
All right, with that out of the way, let's look at the lay of the land.
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