Gallup: R - 49, O - 48; calls it a "tie" (Update: O - 49, R - 46 among RV)

uvalaw2005

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Monday November 05, 2012 · 9:39 AM PST

2012/11/05 · 09:39

http://www.businessweek.com/...

Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport tells Bloomberg Businessweek that the release of Monday’s tracking poll, set for 1 p.m., will show Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters nationally.

And Gallup joins Rasmussen in the rush back to the middle (last pre-hurricane Gallup poll had Rombey +5). Can't wait to see Gallup's RV numbers, which I believe were more accurate than their LV screen in recent years. Read More

O-48 R-47 (RV), R-50 O-47 (LV), new Gallup shows Obama bounce

uvalaw2005

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Wednesday October 24, 2012 · 10:01 AM PDT

2012/10/24 · 10:01

Gallup continues its reversion to the mean, with Obama gaining two points in both the RV and LV, and regaining the lead amongst RV for the first time in two weeks.

Obama approval ratings soars five points to 53 (+2) - 42 (-3). Since the approval ratings are only a 3-day sample while the RV/LV are a 7-day sample, it suggests to me that there is at least some Obama bounce going on, rather than just a bad Romney day rolling off (since different days rolled off the approval rating and the RV/LV samples).

As an advocate for taking the RV more seriously than LV, I also think it is worth noting that at no point did Romney ever hit 50% amongst RV, whereas the President hit that mark multiple times throughout September.

Murphy - 49 McMahon - 43, new Quinnipiac poll

uvalaw2005

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Wednesday October 24, 2012 · 3:24 AM PDT

2012/10/24 · 03:24

A new Quinnipiac poll has Murphy surging to a six point lead over McMahon, up from a one point deficit in their poll from two weeks ago:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

"It's deja vu all over again in the Connecticut Senate race. As we hit the final stretch of the campaign, Linda McMahon is beginning to fade, as she did in her 2010 run against Richard Blumenthal," said Douglas Schwartz, PhD, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.
"Has she hit her ceiling? She took 43 percent of the vote in 2010, losing by 12 points to Blumenthal. Two weeks before the election, she is back at 43 percent."

Quinnipiac is on their home turf with this one, and the 12 point lead they gave Blumenthal at this point in 2010 was right on the money (Blumenthal won by 11.8 points).

This is further evidence that McMahon's transparently cynical pro-Obama ad is backfiring, and it matches the internal DSCC poll from yesterday that also has Murphy up by 6.

Also interesting is that while the MSM continues to drive the Romney-surge story, Obama is improving in CT:

President Barack Obama buries Gov. Mitt Romney in the run for the White House, leading 55 - 41 percent, compared to 54 - 42 percent October 4.
"President Barack Obama is running stronger than Murphy in Connecticut, holding steady with a 14 point lead over Gov. Mitt Romney. The President's coattails are helping Murphy," Schwartz said.

Finally, note the quality of this poll. Most state polls are robo-polls and/or have tiny sample sizes of ~600 likely voters. Quinnipiac goes all out in their home state:

From October 19 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,412 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

Here's the prior poll:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

Warren - 50 Brown - 44, new WBUR Poll

uvalaw2005

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Wednesday October 24, 2012 · 3:14 AM PDT

2012/10/24 · 03:14

Result is 48-43 without leaners, 50-44 with leaners.

http://www.wbur.org/...

The pollster describes this as a "meaningful change" from their prior poll in early October (which RCP is still clinging to), which put Brown up by 4 without leaners and 3 with leaners, for a 9(!) point swing to Warren. Though this is a pretty big swing, the topline is consistent with the same pollsters' September polls, and identical to the recent PPP poll that also put Warren up 50-44.

The pollster focuses on the third debate as a possible cause, but of course Brown has had some other problems in the past couple weeks.

Here's the prior poll:

http://www.wbur.org/...

R - 51 O - 46 (LV), R - 48 O - 47 (RV), Gallup trends back a bit.

uvalaw2005

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Tuesday October 23, 2012 · 10:32 AM PDT

2012/10/23 · 10:32

LV: R - 51 (unchanged), O - 46 (+1)
RV: R - 48 (unchanged), O - 47 (unchanged)

O Approval at 51 (+2) - 45 (-1).

I continue to question the validity of their LV screen, the split between the topline and the approval numbers (though I think the approval numbers may be all adults, not just LV or RV), and the value of a 7-day tracker this close to the election and in the midst of debate season. But since Gallup is apparently the only poll most pundits talk about, the trend is good.

Also, I'm pretty sure Gallup just trolled the whole world by waiting thirty-five minutes to publish their update. Maybe a bit of a "screw you" to all of us critics who nevertheless can't stop ourselves from checking right at 1pm. I'm going to need a new F5 button.

O - 49 R - 41, UNH shows Obama bounce in NH

uvalaw2005

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Monday October 22, 2012 · 12:44 PM PDT

2012/10/22 · 12:44

Live call (landline and cellphone) poll of 773 voters between October 17 and October 21, 2012.

Here's the poll:

http://www.unh.edu/...

Up from O+6 in early October:

http://www.unh.edu/...

O - 49 R - 46, new Democracy Corps national poll

uvalaw2005

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Monday October 22, 2012 · 7:32 AM PDT

2012/10/22 · 07:32

Just released poll of 1000 likely voters, polled October 18-21, puts Obama at 49, Romney at 46:

http://www.democracycorps.com/...

This poll has been included in RCP averages in previous months. A pretty stable trendline by this pollster, as Obama was +5 in early September, +2 in late August, and +4 in late July.

Here's a link to the detailed results:

http://www.democracycorps.com/...

For those who aren't familiar, this is Stan Greenberg's polling outfit.

UPDATE: For what it's worth, at this same point four years ago, this pollster had Obama up 4, 50-46.

Look at how BLUE these states are.

uvalaw2005

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Wednesday November 05, 2008 · 8:20 AM PST

2008/11/05 · 08:20

Of course the sexy part of President-Elect Obama's victory was seeing so many red states from 2000 and 2004 turn blue. He could have won with just Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado or Virginia, but that wouldn't have been nearly so sweet. It is, in fact, difficult to say which formerly red state was the most gratifying to see shaded blue.

uvalaw2005

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Monday October 13, 2008 · 7:58 AM PDT

2008/10/13 · 07:58

Greetings all. Long time reader, first time diarist. My politics have shifted around a bit over the years, from extremely liberal as a teenager in theocratic Utah to more moderate during my college years at a liberal Ivy (a bit of a contrarian, I guess), back to the left in the era of Bush. But the first political donation of my life went to Barack Obama on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, and I maxed out to him on the night of Sarah Palin's convention speech.

Now that I am engaged politically, I want to make sure I am also engaged intellectually. I can feel in my gut, in my heart, that Barack Obama will take this country in a better direction, and that John McCain will not. But I want to be able to discuss the issues that matter intelligently, not rely solely on instincts.

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