There is a lovely book everyone should read called “Iron and Silk”. It was written over 30 years ago by then Yale student Mark Salzman about his experiences in Communist China while on exchange with the Yale-China Association, a program designed to develop educational programs there. It’s not a long read and I would suggest grabbing a copy.
It is an exploration of Chinese culture mostly through the lens of the martial arts. He yearns to study with the great Pan Qinfu, one of the greatest martial arts masters of all time. (This is not hyperbole. Find his biography.) When he finally meets his idol in a master school for martial artists, he is asked to show his own knowledge. At first he demurs, but after some prompting (and also realizing that he didn’t have much of a choice) he did a whirling dervish of a routine that was a hybrid of martial arts and other American influences. Essentially, he was faking it. The students and other members of the school that witnessed his exhibition cheered wildly, except for the man he was trying to impress. The master does not join in the cheers. The master questions the future student’s desire and questions the student specifically if he can “eat bitter”.
[About Mr. Salzman’s performance]
“That's not gon fu." We stared at each other for a long time, then he raised an eyebrow. "I could fix it, if you wanted." I must have nodded, because then he asked me if I could chi ku, eat bitter, the Chinese expression meaning to endure suffering. Lying, I said yes. Then he asked me if I was afraid of pain. Lying again, I said no. "You want?" he asked. "I want," I said, and became his student.”
Mark Salzman — “Iron and Silk” Mark Salzman, 1986
The recent meeting between Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping of China had all the hallmarks of a lesson being taught to the student from the master.
Let’s recap what happened before their recent meeting at the G20 Summit in Japan last week.
Trump asks to restart trade talks that have broken down because of intransigence on both sides regarding the trade war started by the Trump Administration towards China.
Before the meeting, he hints about it through his favorite medium:
Before this, there were signs that China might not (repeat, might not) have the upper hand before the negotiations. Trump’s Commerce Secretary, Wilbur Ross, imposed sanctions on China’s premier telecom company Huawei in May because they were a threat to national security. There was also the specter of Donald Trump levying $300 billion of additional tariffs on China if President Xi did not appear at the upcoming G20 Summit in Japan (which as of 6/18, was not altogether clear). Wall Street quaked. The main stream media quivered.
Unfortunately, as we have come to realize these 2 ½ years, this is Trump’s hubris in full flower — a flailing attempt at trying to appear to make others “eat bitter” in order to get what he really wants, to make himself look good. The result of all this bluster was hardly impressive. After a short discussion with the Chinese President, this was the result.
The United States will resume sales of products to Huawei Technologies, the Chinese telecom equipment manufacturer, President Donald Trump said in his post-G20 press conference Saturday in Osaka.
The action appears to be a surrender to publicly issued Chinese demands.
Trump Bows to Xi Jinping Demands by Gordon Chang, 6/29/2019
Xi basically stated that in order for anything to move, they needed this one matter dropped. In essence, they called Trump’s bluff. They, like Master Pan, saw right through Trump’s façade and called him on it. Trump ate bitter and accepted their terms, getting nothing for his retreat. A promise that talks would resume and that China would consider importing farm products again from America was the same answer he got the last time those two met at last year’s G20 Summit, when trade talks were also stalled. Xi pulled a Sam Malone with the political equivalent of “I’ll call you.”
These are just two pieces of economic commentary surrounding this “deal”…
“We could have just changed the date and republished our old report on the last G-20 Summit in December 2018,” Raymond Yeung, chief economist for greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd., said in a note Saturday. “The U.S. has again held off new tariffs in exchange for China’s purchases of agricultural products. However, the U.S. did not promise that it won’t escalate its trade measures.”
Australia and New Zealand Banking Group
“So, much work needs to be done to prevent another break up of negotiations. China’s promise, according to the U.S., to import more agricultural products from the States while the U.S. postpones new tariff hikes, is not very different than what was already agreed upon in December last year and proved, in the end, to be insufficient for a deal.”
Iris Pang, ING Economics
You can find more commentary about this here.
At some point, China is going to make Trump really suffer (and, by extension, the U.S. as well) for his bluster. Like Master Pan, they know a phony when they see it. They have real knowledge and know how to play the long game. They have the strong hand here and they are going to play it for all it’s worth. Trump caved because he (and they) know that he cannot deliver on additional tariffs without completely tanking his own economy. The evidence lies in the reporting from the propaganda machine known as Fox News. You would think that this great achievement would be on the front page. It is nowhere to be found on their site. It’s mostly proclaiming victory over Trump’s meeting with North Korean dictator, Kim Jong Un, legitimizing a murderer’s regime. America’s farmers are still suffering, but how about that meet and greet in the DMZ!
Unlike Mr. Salzman, Mr. Trump does not understand that to truly grow, one must accept one’s own limitations first. This is an essential precept to Chinese culture. Trump has no concept of learning from eating bitter. He’s too scared.
To quote another famous philosopher…
“Fasten your seat belts. It's going to be a bumpy night.”
Bette Davis, “All About Eve”