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View Diary: Show Me Something: Missouri State Senate Redistricting (21 comments)

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  •  Map Part 2 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Part 1 wasn't recently updated, so Part 2 keeps the deviations below 1000, breaks a few county lines, and reinforces a few districts.




    Districts which saw some movement in percentages (All the Was' are from Plan Part 1)

    SD1: Obama 50/McCain 49. (Was 49.5/49.4)
    SD2: McCain 59/Obama 40.5. (Was 58/41)

    SD4: Obama 87.5/McCain 12 (Was 89/11). Now 59.5% AA
    SD5: Obama 79/McCain 20 (Was 72/27). Now 49% W/40% AA

    SD8: McCain 57/Obama 42 (Was 56/43)

    SD10: Obama 62/McCain 37 (Was 64/35). 64/36 Dem.
    SD11: Obama 54/McCain 45 (Was 53/46). 59/41 Dem.
    SD12: McCain 59/Obama 38 (Was 59.5/38)
    SD13: Obama 76/McCain 23 (Was 77/22). 57% AA
    SD14: Obama 79/McCain 20 (Was 81/18). 83/16 Dem. 49% AA
    SD15: McCain 52.5/Obama 47 (Was 54/45). 54/46 Rep.

    SD18: 56/42 McCain. I typoed it in the first summary.

    SD21: Now 52/48 Dem.

    SD23: Now 50/50. Reps lead the average by 40 votes.
    SD24: Obama 54/McCain 45. (Was 60/39.5). 56/44 Dem.

    SD28: McCain 65/Obama 33 (Was 65/33.5)
    SD29: Now 63/37 Rep

    SD31: McCain 59/Obama 40 (Was 59/39). 51/49 Rep

    SD33: McCain 65/Obama 33.5 (Was 65/33)
    SD34: McCain 51/Obama 48 (Was 51/47.5). 50.5/49.5 Rep

    So the totals are

    Reliably Dem: 7 (4, 5, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14)
    Lean Dem: 3 (19, 22, 24)
    Tossup: 5 (1, 3, 17, 23, 34)
    Lean Rep: 3 (15, 21, 30)
    Reliably Republican: 15 (2, 6, 7, 8, 12, 16, 18, 20, 25, 26, 27, 28, 31, 32, 33)

    The cruel reality is that with the Dem areas being 80%+ Dem areas and being so densely packed, there's not a reliable way to have the Reliable/Lean Dem districts be remotely close to the Reliable/Lean Rep districts. Even with a 50/50 election.

    If it weren't for the Senators and Future Senators I like, I'd advocate Missouri going Unicameral.

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Sat Nov 26, 2011 at 05:05:00 PM PST

    •  Well done. (0+ / 0-)

      and yes, unicameral makes sense since the Senate is accidentally set up to underrepresent Democrats.

      'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

      by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 26, 2011 at 05:08:34 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  plus (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Missouri's Capital has cramped office space, so opening up 34 more offices would help reduce the number of representatives in the two-layer office clusters. I'm not kidding. Missouri's capital wasn't really set up for 197 legislators, so they had to improvise a bit when they got to that number.

        I'm expecting the Legislature Map to be released in the next week since the judges kept everybody waiting for a few weeks too long.

        What I expect from the maps:

        they'll probably make the all-Clay County Senate district from the Republican areas and put the Democratic Southern Clay County in with 10 or 11. I'm not sure if that split would allow for 3 districts to be put in Jackson County, but the composition should still be 3D-1R.

        The STL districts are the most important for the Senate. So if they screw us, they'll pack the Dems into the 13th/14th and keep Republicans in 3 other districts. But in all reality, they can't really hold all 6 districts in the County and one should be drawn out.

        The impression i've heard repeatedly from Dems is that the Dem Chief Justice made some bad picks (in their POV) for the Judges handling redistricting, and that the Reps are sticking together and the Dems are disorganized. So i'm expecting them to do a status-quo map instead of doing anything too radical. The House map is a modified version of the 1991 map which was drawn by Republicans and a few Dems in the Citizens Committee. The Dems tried suggesting a few maps that would be fairly more beneficial to Dems but they knew that they couldn't move the Rs on the first committee.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Sat Nov 26, 2011 at 06:06:55 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  The Chief Justice was an Ashcroft appointee (0+ / 0-)

          not a Dem one

          'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

          by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 26, 2011 at 06:12:27 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

        •  What of the State House map? (0+ / 0-)

          Nothing really radical there, either?

          'It's a troublesome world. All the people who're in it are troubled with troubles almost every minute. You ought to be thankful, a whole heaping lot, for the places and people you're lucky you're not.' - Dr. Seuss

          by KingofSpades on Sat Nov 26, 2011 at 06:13:02 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  not expecting anything too radical (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            KingofSpades

            the House is 106/57 Rep right now. But it could be drawn with 70ish Dem seats. The problem is that the campaign finance system (no limits whatsoever) is so ridiculous that it'll take a lot of money to get back into the 70s in the House. You think Citizens United is bad? since August 2008 in Missouri, the state elections are done Texas-style. Under the premise that 6/7-digit contributions should only be reported instead of prohibited.

            The Republican map in the first committee paired a few rural Dems but was mainly focused on maintaining their unrealistic majority (they called it "Minimal changes").

            The Democratic map went from lots of ridiculous districts to increase the number of Dems to more modest districts to increase the number of Dems.

            The maps are here. Check out Skaggs-Davis for their first try, which was a display in creativity (and in pissing off Democratic legislators)

            The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

            by RBH on Sat Nov 26, 2011 at 06:38:42 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

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