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View Diary: Sea Ice Death Spiral Driving Atlantic Water into Arctic Causing Wild Weather (197 comments)

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  •  A drought next summer will... (10+ / 0-)

    Wake up the climate deniers. On the Buffalo Ridge in the midwest farm belt, the water was shut off in august and we've had little precipitation since. Unless we get a lot of rain and snow to catch up, it looks like a summer of crop failures.

    •  Droughts have started like this historically (8+ / 0-)

      The jet stream may contract after a 2 year La Nina like the one we are going through now. If a big high pressure area sets up over the mid continent, as it has done in the past in this situation, we will have a severe drought this year.

      look for my eSci diary series Thursday evening.

      by FishOutofWater on Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 08:17:16 AM PST

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      •  Christ, thats just what we needed. (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Into The Woods, marina, mightymouse

        Massive crop failure.

        "YOPP!" --Horton Hears a Who

        by Reepicheep on Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 02:48:26 PM PST

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        •  Pentagon Commissioned A Study - 2003 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          marina

          So far, based on the diarists comments, it does not appear that there is evidence of the following occuring, but this summary of the report's findings gives a bit broader idea of what could come of this:

          ...
          Recent research, however, suggests that there is a possibility that this gradual global warming could lead to a relatively abrupt slowing of the ocean’s thermohaline conveyor, which could lead to harsher winter weather conditions, sharply reduced soil moisture, and more intense winds in certain regions that currently provide a significant fraction of the world’s food production. With inadequate preparation, the result could be a significant drop in the human carrying capacity of the Earth’s environment.

          ...

          In this report, as an alternative to the scenarios of gradual climatic warming that are so common, we outline an abrupt climate change scenario patterned after the 100- year event that occurred about 8,200 years ago. This abrupt change scenario is characterized by the following conditions:

          · Annual average temperatures drop by up to 5 degrees Fahrenheit over Asia and North America and 6 degrees Fahrenheit in northern Europe

          · Annual average temperatures increase by up to 4 degrees Fahrenheit in key areas throughout Australia, South America, and southern Africa.

          · Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centers in Europe and eastern North America.

          · Winter storms and winds intensify, amplifying the impacts of the changes. Western Europe and the North Pacific experience enhanced winds.

          The report explores how such an abrupt climate change scenario could potentially de-stabilize the geo-political environment, leading to skirmishes, battles, and even war due to resource constraints such as:

          1) Food shortages due to decreases in net global agricultural production

          2) Decreased availability and quality of fresh water in key regions due to shifted precipitation patters, causing more frequent floods and droughts

          3) Disrupted access to energy supplies due to extensive sea ice and storminess

          As global and local carrying capacities are reduced, tensions could mount around the world, leading to two fundamental strategies: defensive and offensive. Nations with the resources to do so may build virtual fortresses around their countries, preserving resources for themselves. Less fortunate nations especially those with ancient enmities with their neighbors, may initiate in struggles for access to food, clean water, or energy. Unlikely alliances could be formed as defense priorities shift and the goal is resources for survival rather than religion, ideology, or national ho
          nor.

          ...

          An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United  States National Security
          October 2003
          By Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall  PDF (22pgs)

          A report commissioned by the Department of Defense's Office of Net Assessment (as I understand it, an internal think-tank tasked with long range planning for high impact low probablity events.)

          And that does not factor in any events that might also contribute the the social and economic outcomes that are already a possibility even without the 'conveyor belt' going haywire.

          Someone in a very expensive suit is at the front door and says he wants to foreclose on our democracy. Where should I tell him he can put his robosigning pen?

          by Into The Woods on Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 04:52:53 PM PST

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        •  eventually that will happen (0+ / 0-)

          2010 in Russia, 2011 in TX.

    •  in the San Francisco area (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Evolutionary, mrkvica

      in California, our rainfall totals so far are under 30 percent of normal. We are definitely going to be facing another drought. Last year was the first normal year in a while, and one year is not enough to recharge aquifers and reservoirs.

      •  It was a huge relief to feel those first drops of (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ms Citizen

        rain on my head leaving downtown Sacramento yesterday.  But one set of storms in nearly a year of no precipitation won't save us from drought.  We need it to rain for three months straight.  Tonight, watch out for heavy winds and heavy rain.  Don't even think about going to Reno or Tahoe.
        I think I'll go do some more exploring in Golden Gate Park.  In rain and drizzle (and fog), I feel like I have the whole park to myself.  Walk, get wet, maybe visit the Conservatory of Flowers or the Academy of Sciences.

        I used to hate the constant winter rainy days, but right this second, it is a feeling of relief!

        #OccupyOMC - "We have a permit, its called The Constitution".

        by Evolutionary on Fri Jan 20, 2012 at 09:56:36 AM PST

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