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View Diary: Private prisons in AZ: failures by any measure, protected by Republicans (9 comments)

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  •  Kudos to MB: I missed that diary (1+ / 0-)
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    tytalus

    but the stats of incarceration are staggering.  Assume 100 cases. National average is 70% of cases end with plea bargain.  Assuming that no one accepts a plea bargain if he is innocent, then we are left with 30% of cases that go to trial
    The conviction rate for jury trials is also 70% so this means 21 of the 30 cases result in conviction.
    However, the Innocence Project estimates that 10% of all people incarcerated are innocent.  This means 10 of every 100 inmates are innocent.  So if that 10% is found in the sample that goes to trial, it appears that a jury trial is a crap shoot with the chances of the jury getting it right roughly the same  as a coin flip.

    No wonder these corporations can begin building new prisons posited on 90% occupancy.  I also forgot to mention the 3 strike rule as another element cited in the SEC report that would help guarantee maximum occupancy  

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