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View Diary: BREAKING: Arab League asks Assad to step down! (54 comments)

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  •  I think neither diplomacy nor intervention (6+ / 0-)

    will work in Syria, unfortunately.

    Assad will fight until he dies or suppresses the entire uprising.

    It will be very ugly.  And there's nothing the West, the UN, the Arab League, or anyone else can do about it.

    That is my bleak assessment.

    •  the hope, I think (6+ / 0-)

      is to convince Syrians wavering in their support to go against him.

      Juan Cole argued several months ago that Assad's main power base was the business class who had become rich through supporting him.  I don't know what their current support is. It didn't exactly sound as if it was the same kind of personal/tribal loyalty as Gaddafi had.

    •  There is zero chance of Assad (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      joe from Lowell, killjoy

      succeeding in repressing the uprising. This has gone way too far for that. The opposition has much stronger allies than the Assad regime. The Russians and the Chinese are merely trying to thwart US influence in the Middle East. This is a losing struggle and they know it, sooner or later ( probably sooner) they will drop their support for Assad in return for the US agreeing to stay out of Syria. Since this is what the US wants, anyway, it should be easy to negotiate.

      The Syrian civil war could go on for some time, depending on how much it turns into a religious and tribal struggle for power.

      Here's my take on it - the revolution will not be blogged, it has to be slogged. - Deoliver47

      by OIL GUY on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 05:34:08 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Just a quibble (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        joe from Lowell, angry marmot

        Usually these countries (e.g. Serbia, Iraq, Egypt, Libya, now Syria) don't become supports for American interests so much as they simply fall away as thorny militant obstacles to democratization.  And the significant side phenomenon of democratization of breakup of state territory by secession of incompatible parts that were usually obtained by conquest.

        Russia and China like thwarting the U.S. and EU.   But evaluating the effects of American wars and policies in the past two decades, and last century, has shown them that if they don't prop up these fairly minor dictators as obstacles to democratization/Modernization it will soon be fully on their borders.  The current rulers of Russia and China may fear regime change, but I don't think that's primary.   It's that their territories are constituted of incompatible parts and territories obtain by imperial conquest- Tartarstan, the northern Caucasus, Siberia, Tibet, Sinkiang, Manchuria.  Losing those to secession/partition is the unbearable thought.  These are still pre-Modern conservative societies and conservative elites; their sense of themselves as important is constructed on being imperial, on having such conquests, on inability to let them go.

        The U.S. lets conquests go- Mexico, Cuba, Germany, Italy, the Pacific Island countries, South Korea and Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Iraq, etc.

        I suspect there will be significant change in Lebanon too when Assad has fallen and the forces he propped there crumble.  The whole map of Syria/Lebanon will be up for significant debate.  I wouldn't be surprised if a Kurdish autonomous region forms, which Turkey won't like but will have to conform to eventually.  That is what is at stake in this war locally- a whole slew of artifices and obsolete orderings will come to an end.

        •  Great comment. In the case of Russia, I'd add... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          killjoy, angry marmot

          that Russia has always - for centuries before the Soviet era, during the Soviet era, and since then - aspired to be a global power.  So it's not just territories on their periphery that they are concerned about, but with having a global sphere of influence.

          Unlike China, which doesn't seem to care very much about anything except its immediate environs.

          Art is the handmaid of human good.

          by joe from Lowell on Mon Jul 23, 2012 at 10:00:10 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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