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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney moves into tie with Obama (233 comments)

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  •  Romney stuck at 46 (4+ / 0-)

    Seems like Romney, in just about any reliable poll, is stuck at 46 or so, and he really will need at least 49 (and probably 50) to win.  

    I'd say 43% are fundamentally sold on anti-Obama.

    5% are genuine swing voters who probably lean Republican when push comes to shove.

    Everyone else is either for Obama or scared of Romney/the Republicans.  

    I still don't see how
    1) Romney culls together 270 EVs or
    2) Romney completes the sale with anyone outside of his 48% base

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 11:37:03 AM PDT

    •  easy unemployment goes up a few more (4+ / 0-)

      percentage points between now and November.

      If it reaches say 8.4% or 8.5% then that means multiple months of trending down, and not sure how Obama survives that.

      If it stays around 8.2% give or take a percentage point, then Obama should be a slight favorite.

      If it gets down to 8.0 or one hopes 7.9 (for the psychological barrier breaking) then I'd say Obama in a rout.

      •  That's why I'm hoping we get a 100K+ jobs and (0+ / 0-)

        the unemployment rate ticks below 8.1 (just for the narative) that it fell...

        "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

        by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 02:41:41 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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