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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Romney moves into tie with Obama (233 comments)

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  •  According to TPMs Poll Tracker, in Pennsylvania (0+ / 0-)

    Obama leads Romney by an average of 47.6 to 42.4; none other than Rasmussen gave Obama a four point lead.

    Vote suppression is bad, but I don't think it will overturn a five or six point lead.  Just a guess, but Romney would have to draw to probably within a point for that to realistically swing things, and even then I'm not sure it alone would flip the state.

    36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

    by Mike in MD on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:06:54 PM PDT

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    •  Really? With a 750K possible voters out? (0+ / 0-)

      Estimates of voters suppressed range from 750K to 1M. Not all these are Obama votes but I fancy 70% are. That counts for about 300K to 700K vote lose.
      I think this is enough to flip the state. To make up for this Obama needs to outsprint Romney by no less than 6 points on election day in PA...with that he could crawl across the finish line with 1 point.

      "When fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." Sinclair Lewis, 1935 --Talk of foresight--

      by tuma on Tue Jul 24, 2012 at 01:18:29 PM PDT

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      •  only if and very big if at that.. (0+ / 0-)

         Even if the law disenfranchises that many you must realise that alot of those voters will end up getting ID before November. Indiana has a similar law but it only affected about a thousand voters statewide.

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