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View Diary: Gov. Corbett tries to defend his failure to prosecute Jerry Sandusky (143 comments)

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  •  O'Brien will NOT survive this (0+ / 0-)

    I mean a coach and staff AFTER O'Brien

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 12:46:44 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  Neither he (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Adam B, Glacial Erratic

      nor any of his staff have any connection to Penn State during the Paterno era. They're all new hires, AFAIK.

      "A lie is not the other side of a story; it's just a lie."

      by happy camper on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 01:23:49 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's really not his fault, either (0+ / 0-)

      Of course, if he does poorly in coaching, he'll be gone, but he will be given a large window of opportunity to prove he's what Penn State needs.  He's still in a very tough spot.  If he's unable to show improvement by year three or four, he'll be gone and a big name coach will be paid millions by the Penn State backers to come in and restore Penn State's glory days.  There will be many who want this plum of a job, given the high-quality facilities, the Big10 membership, the support of the town and university, not to mention one of the largest alumni associations in the world.

      •  Penn State won't get rid of O'Brien after three (2+ / 0-)

        years no matter what. The whole point of the NCAA penalties is to knock football off the pedestal that allowed its interests to be put ahead of the welfare of children.

        I think five wins is optimistic. The loss of scholarships and the ban on post-season play will severely affect the recruiting beginning immediately. By the time the scholarships and possible post-season play are back it will take time to rebuild the program from the ground up. The quality of recruits could start to go up in 2017, but it will takes years after that till the program is competitive again because the best players that year are likely to be freshmen, few of whom are ready for Big Ten-level competition.

         Until then, none of what happens can be laid at O'Brien's door. If he stays, and there's a penalty in his contract if he leaves early, he will have the chance to rebuild a program from almost nothing.

        •  However, when they emerge from the sanctions... (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          They will want a new big name coach with a hot hand to revive recruiting.  Although I agree it will not be fair to the coach, he will have four years of losing seasons that will do nothing to show what he would be able to accomplish with a top rated set of recruits.  The university will give him a package and escort him to the door and bring in the next Myers or Saben to turn around the program and help erase the memory of the scandal years.  Another four years of mediocre recruiting will bring the school to a bowl game but it will be a decade before the program is restored to national prominence.  At least a decade and probably two additional coaching changes.  Just my prediction.

          "Perhaps the sentiments contained in the following pages, are not YET sufficiently fashionable to procure them general favour..."

          by Buckeye Nut Schell on Wed Jul 25, 2012 at 04:49:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  O'Brien isn't exactly a no-name. (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Buckeye Nut Schell, ColoTim

            He was the offensive coordinator for the New England Patriots, which is a pretty impressive pedigree in the college ranks. If his ambition is in fact to become a beloved coach of an esteemed college program (rather than just a stepping stone to a pro job), then he could be in just the right position for the long term. Demonstrate loyalty, build a program that exceeds diminished expectations, and the odds are good that the alumni and student body will be very, very appreciative of his work.

            •  As I said above, if he succeeds against the odds, (0+ / 0-)

              he'll be given a large window of opportunity as nobody will expect much.  If he fails, or if he's not showing he knows how to be a head coach at a top-notch program (even though PSU will be down for a few years) he will be gone and someone with a proven track record at a major college will be brought in.  As someone above said, it would likely be someone on the level of Meyer or Saben (who have won national championships) to succeed with this rebuilding.  Just 5-6 wins won't satisfy the alumni, especially the ones with deep pockets who worshiped Joe Paterno and don't think he did anything wrong, especially getting fired, breaking his heart.

              My personal guess?  Steve Spurrier, since I don't think South Carolina is ever going to get over the hump in the SEC to beat the Bama's, LSU's, etc on a yearly basis.  If he's in the Big10, he might be able to do well, but he'd now be facing Urban Meyer again, as well as a few other top schools.

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