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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Michigan court rules emergency manager measure to stay on ballot (50 comments)

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  •  IN-Pres: Rasmussen (0+ / 0-)

    Rasmussen poll of Indiana has Romney up 51-35 over Obama.

    I doubt Obama's winning Indiana again, and the state's lack of polling makes it hard to judge what to trust. But I don't buy this. Ras' own poll from May had it a 6-point race (though that was an internet poll). Nothing has happened in the last two months to cause his numbers to collapse that strongly there.

    •  Nate Silver discussed this one yesterday (0+ / 0-)

      and pegged it as a likely outlier. But even if the margin is a bit less than 16, he practically dismisses Obama's chances of winning IN:

      Nevertheless, there is not much sign that Indiana — which President Obama narrowly won in 2008 — is likely to be competitive this year; the campaigns have expended essentially no resources there. With the new survey, the model gives Mr. Obama just a 6 percent chance of winning Indiana — less than a couple of states, like Missouri and Montana, that he failed to win in 2008.
      Barring a gigantic late swing to Obama it looks like IN is pretty much gone, but it's the only part of his 2008 map that looks a sure thing for Romney, and he needs at least another 5 states to switch.

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