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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Obama moves into two-point lead over Romney (68 comments)

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  •  Nate Silver waxed mathematical regarding (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM

    Romney's VP pick today.

    To maximize his chances, he recommends ... Bob Portman. On the grounds that Ohio is fairly likely to be the deciding state IF Romney wins. Florida, although larger, is less likely to be the state that decides things, because Romney is more likely to win Florida and lose Ohio than the reverse.

    For lulz, consider that Rick Santorum actually reduces Romney's chances in Pennsylvania and therefore overall.

    Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

    by blue aardvark on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 11:40:23 AM PDT

    •  Sandoval also in top 3. (1+ / 0-)
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      blue aardvark

      Governor Sandoval of Nevada is also viewed as being one of the most useful since he may enough to flip a slighly democratic leaning State to Romney.

    •  But Silver said nothing about other VP effects (1+ / 0-)
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      IM

      He certainly waxed about the effect on winning the VP's home state, and whether that could make a difference, but he said nothing about what else the VP could add to Romney's chances (such as by picking the popular Hispanic woman governor of New Mexico, Susana Martinez, which could have a lot of impact beyond New Mexico's five electoral votes).

      •  Actually, he did (1+ / 0-)
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        Delilah

        He simply dismissed it. Because the evidence for a VP pick having much positive effect outside the VP's home state just isn't there, and Nate's an evidence-based guy.

        Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

        by blue aardvark on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:11:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  No, he only talks about the home state advantage (0+ / 0-)

          Here is what he says in the first 2 paragraphs:

          "We haven’t had that much to say about Mitt Romney’s choice of a vice-presidential nominee — mostly because it just isn’t something that lends itself to rigorous analysis.

          But let’s focus on the part of the problem where our tools — particularly, the simulation program that runs the FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast — come in handy. Whatever else they do or do not accomplish for Mr. Romney, his potential running mates could improve his standing in their home states, potentially changing the outcome there."

          •  I guess you missed that part about (1+ / 0-)
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            Delilah

            'not lending itself to rigorous analysis'. It is very hard to tease out, for example, just how many votes Sarah Palin cost John McCain.

            Romney economics: Feed our seed corn to the fattest pigs and trust them to poop out jobs.

            by blue aardvark on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:23:11 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  No, that's why I copied it (0+ / 0-)

              Silver admits that he cannot analyze the effect.  He says nothing about whether there would be one or not.  That's why he sticks to the in-state effect, which is amenable to  Silver-style analytics.  To truly evaluate the potential effects you would need to have national or extensive state polls that could determine whether a particular VP candidate moves the polls.  Knowing whether a woman VP nominee from another state would affect how a Virginian might vote has nothing to do with in-state effects, but sure could determine the election.

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