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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Obama moves into two-point lead over Romney (68 comments)

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  •  Not all statistical ties are identical (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    R30A, hyperstation, IM

    Because error is distributed normally. Being within the MOE just means that you cannot say with 95% confidence that a candidate is leading.

    Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

    by fearlessfred14 on Wed Aug 08, 2012 at 12:46:22 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  agreed... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      hyperstation, dackmont

      you're are quite correct.  what i should've said is that we should have little confidence (less even than 95%) that there is any significant difference between posting a "46-46% tie" and a "48-46% lead" (no matter how much we wish it were otherwise).

      but even assuming that the error is normally distributed remains an assumption.

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