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View Diary: No Change In Obama Gallup Approval (Still 50-44) Is Great News UPDATED! (25 comments)

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  •  Dave... (0+ / 0-)

    You might appreciate this post by Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium. He tried to back out the numbers too, and estimated that the biggest day for approvals was the day after Michelle's speech, with Thursday (right after Clinton's) a close second.

    See the update at the bottom:

    http://election.princeton.edu/...

    •  Thanks Kevin (1+ / 0-)
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      itskevin

      Mr. Wang's methods are obviously more sophisticated than my back of the envelope estimates, but our results are very similar.  Most people don't realize how huge a move has occurred when a multiple day moving average moves 4 or 5 points in one direction.  And how sometimes, when results drop out of a moving average, no change in the bottom line can actually be highly significant.

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