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View Diary: Beyond the Margin of Error (5): This is Why We Can't Have Nice Things (12 comments)

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  •  Aha! (2+ / 0-)
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    MooseHB, MichaelNY

    This was just my theory - that maybe 15% of poll respondents (especially on robo-polls?) were just fucking around, basically. Hence Romney regularly winning the Native American vote. Hence the stronger party in a given state outperforming the polls, since random responses would tend to lead to results that regress towards 50-50. And hence toplines that usually look pretty good, since the random responses would tend to cancel out overall, even as they distort minority subsamples.

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