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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: Tammy Baldwin pulls into lead while Tommy Thompson rests (173 comments)

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  •  The WI Senate polls are really surprising to me. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rosarugosa, LordMike, JClarkPDX

    After Thompson won the GOP nom, I figured that was it. Wisconsin has been trending red and it seemed like a popular former governor would have an insurmountable advantage over a congresswoman who had never won a state=wide race. I also expected that Baldwin would be the subject of homophobic attacks that would further damage her in the conservative Mid-West.

    Glad to see that I might be wrong on this one. Sounds like Thompson isn't as popular as I thought. I am definitely looking forward to those other polls in the race that are coming.

    If there is no accountability for those who authorized torture, we can no longer say that we are a nation of laws, not men.

    by MikePhoenix on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 06:25:00 AM PDT

    •  Wisconsin is not trending red (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rosarugosa, Chachy, JClarkPDX

      that is a false notion that has taken hold here. Remember we regained the state senate after 2010.

      •  And we'll lose it again in November... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lina, MikePhoenix

        The state is in WalkerRyanMania.  They love these creeps.  We might be able to squeak it out this year federally, but then it's gone for a long time... or at least until the Walker love affair wears off.

        GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

        by LordMike on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 06:37:35 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Walker approval is 50% (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rosarugosa

          that isn't "love" and winning a recall election by 7% when it is almost unheard of to be recalled in the first place is nothing to crow about.

          •  50% is love... (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Mark27, lina, MikePhoenix

            True love.  All his GOP bretheren are struggling to break 40% in GOP friendly states.  Kasich, Corbett, even Snyder whos' more "moderate".

            50% is true love in this environment.  There is no way that a "blue" state as you describe WI would love Walker as much as they have.  Period.  There's no way that it would be a tossup with Ryan on the ticket.  Period.

            WI is gone... gone... gone... It will soon be Kansas.  Who's going to stop them?  Nobody.  WI labor and the WI dems are decimated.  It's an easy ride for the WI GOP from here on out.

            You guys are all claiming that WI is somehow getting bluer, yet election after election we lose and keep losing... we keep losing ground, but there's this fantasy that the state is getting bluer.  Where?  We've lost the southwest and Northern parts of the state that used to be friendly to us.  All that's left is Madison and Milwakee.  That's it.

            Gone.

            Walker fulfilled the GOP dream--he gutted the opposition and made the fence sitters love him.

            Face it.  WI is gone. We might be able to pull something out this year, but that will be the last hurrah for quite awhile.

            GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

            by LordMike on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 06:58:11 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Way premature at best. (9+ / 0-)

              Walker won by 6 points in the biggest GOP year in modern history, then by 7 in what was in hindsight an ill-advised recall.  In the meantime, Dems gained three State Senate seats through recalls.  Let's wait for a general election that ISN'T in the biggest GOP year in modern history before we pronounce the patient dead.  Who knows, you might be suprised...

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 07:05:11 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Has anyone quantified just how many people (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                rosarugosa

                were against the recall process itself?

                Also, I know a lot of people disagree, but I really believe that if Walker had tried to end the collective bargaining process for all state workers, he'd have lost the recall battle. There's a certain segment that will always vote Republican, but I suspect enough people would have been chipped away to make him fail.

                It's entirely possible we might end up in such a position in a few years. If/when that happens, perhaps enough public workers will unite to bounce these clowns from office.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 07:14:53 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  Al D'Amato was elected three times in New York, (4+ / 0-)

              which is a far more liberal/Democratic state than Wisconsin. A lot of that was because New York Democrats couldn't get their shit together, but still, if he were so objectionable, why would people send him back three times?

              I don't think the state is so much trending red as it is polarized. It is entirely possible it's slipping away from us, but the claim that it's already gone is just silly.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 07:11:59 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Baldwin is a real progressive so that might be (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                JBraden

                why she is doing so well, given that the state is so polarized. She seems also to be able to be progressive on things that matter to older voters, like Medicare and veteran's issues and unions/jobs/trade issues.

              •  D'Amato (0+ / 0-)

                is from Long Island, and had a lot of home town support (demographically, Long Island is the second largest voting block in New York).  

                Also, his first win was in 1980, when he ran on both the Republican AND the Liberal party ticket.

                Also, New York Republicans in 1980 were not the New York Republicans of 2012.

                It's about time I changed my signature.

                by Khun David on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 08:58:19 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  That was hilarious to read. Not gonna lie. (8+ / 0-)

              Keep a bit of perspective. Your reference frame for Dems losing "election after election" is a period of less than two years, prior to which we won the state by 14 points, carrying all but 19 of the state's 72 counties). As it stands right now, we have a good chance of sending the first openly gay person to the Senate. We elected Bob LaFollette and Joe McCarthy, Russ Feingold and Scott Walker. WI is a swing state (with above average elasticity), and will be for quite sometime.

              •  As I said somewhere else (0+ / 0-)

                in this thread, let's see if Walker tries to end collective bargaining rights for all public employees. If he tried to do that, I don't think it ends well for him.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 07:29:08 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

              •  Ancient history... (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                Mark27

                Progressive Wisconsin is long gone, under the trance of the FitzWalker machine.  The Dem party is crushed now that labor is gone. So, even if the love affair wears off, there's little infrastructure to rebuild.  It's going to be a long, miserable decade at least.

                GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                by LordMike on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 07:41:54 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Considering (0+ / 0-)

                  You listed Kasich/Corbett/Snyder as being in the more GOP friendly states of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan, can I just assume you drank some crazy juice this morning?

                  On what planet is WI to the left of these 3 states in terms of who they've elected recently?  

                  "What if you're on a game show one day and the name of some random New Jersey state senator is the only thing between you and several thousand dollars? And you'll think to yourself, "if only I had clapped faster." - sapelcovits

                  by rdw72777 on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 07:49:29 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  WI was way to the left of these states... (0+ / 0-)

                    Before the Walker revolution.  They were quite blue both in the state and federal level.  Going into the 2010 election, WI had two dem Senators, a Dem governor, a dem state senate, and a den statehouse.  That was not true of MI, OH, and PA, who were split at best.  

                    Of course, with FitzWalkerstan firmly established, all that is gone now.  It's been the most sudden and dramatic political transformation I've ever seen.

                    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

                    by LordMike on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 07:56:07 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                  •  He's not crazy. I always think of Ohio and Mich (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    LordMike

                    as further to the right in  a lot of ways than Wisconsin. Especially on environmental and business type issues.

                    I don't know so much about Pennsylvania.

                •  That is a lot a bit overboard (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  sacman701

                  First off, Wisconsin was never a liberal bastion as you are implying. Obama and Kohl made it seem that way, but it is not attached to reality. Remember, Wisconsin was the home of the infamous Senator Joe McCarthy. The state, with few exceptions, as always been evenly divided, and more polarized than the average state.

            •  Yeah whatever (0+ / 0-)

              We'll see what happens in the Senate race and the presidential contest.  Too early to compare state legislative races and even a gubernatorial recall to the national PVI trends.  

              Now if somehow Obama does worse in Wisconsin than his national average, then clearly the rightward trend is confirmed, but I'm still somewhat skeptical that will occur.

              •  I think you overstate things too much. (0+ / 0-)

                If he does one point worse than his national average in one election, that's a confirmation of a rightward trend?

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Tue Sep 18, 2012 at 07:30:06 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  I Suspect This Will Be True In Most Places..... (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              LordMike, lina

              ....where white people remain a majority.  We're seeing an ongoing demographic shift across the country where mostly white areas are falling prey to the values of the Tea Pary.  Even places like Massachusetts and Rhode Island are showing signs of contraction for Democrats, and a growing segment of Tea Party sympathizing.  At least at a state level, Vermont has gotten to be the last remaining outlier of a mostly white state that is trending blue, along with the western part of the New Hampshire I guess.  The rest of the 80+% white states are becoming less blue.  The conventional wisdom is that the GOP needs to become more attractive to minority voters to prevail in future elections, but I'm not sure that's true.  I think they simply need to raise the threshold of white voters they get by a couple points every year...and that strikes me as doable when you look at the trendline of states like Wisconsin where the Tea Party message continues to win over converts and expand the geographical scope of white working-class voters casting ballots to annihilate themselves.  

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