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View Diary: DKos Polling Aggregate: Is This Why Republicans Hate Education? (44 comments)

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  •  Democrats do indeed do better among HS voters (4+ / 0-)

    ...Among the entire voting population. In Dkos summer polling, Obama does better among those with high school or less education than those with some college or college. (The numbers for these lower education levels probably understate Obama's support because of polling error.)

    But that's because voters with less education are more likely to be non-white. If we want to try to identify a relationship with education itself, we need to filter out the variable of race. This is what the first graph above shows  - the relationship between education and voting preference just among whites - those with less education are less likely to support Obama. (This may or may not be true for voters of other races; we don't have the data available.)

    In the SUSA Oregon poll in particular, N<100 for the high school category, so the error is +/-11 points. This is high enough that all we can say when comparing to Obama's support among educational categories is that it is not statistically different from support of those with some college or college. Indeed, if you look at the 2008 Oregon exit poll, which has N=1249, you can see a nominal and significant increase in support for Obama from those with a HS education (52%) to postgraduates (68%).

    The same idea goes for income. Lower income voters are more likely to be racial minorities, as you point out in your comment. So yes, overall, lower income voters are more likely to vote for Democrats. But if we want to try to identify the relationship with income alone we need to filter out other variables. After you account for race and education, income only has a slight relationship to support for Obama.

    So yes, income can be a good predictor of voting behavior if all other variables are unknown.  But it is only a good predictor because it tends to be linked with race in our society. The correlation between income itself and voting behavior - and thus the possible effect of income - is not strong, but probably there to a small extent.

    Sorry I did not make myself more clear. Thanks for your comment.

    •  I don't think it was lack of clarity, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      historys mysteries, MichaelNY

      but in removing variables you're losing sight of the whole picture.  Income is a very important factor.  That it's tied to race and education doesn't make it less important.

      ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

      by James Allen on Fri Sep 28, 2012 at 11:25:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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