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View Diary: New Study Predicts 6m Annual Deaths and 3% GDP Loss by 2030 - But That's Not the Real Story (30 comments)

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  •  An article in Nature last month (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    UltraAyla, ColoTim

    ... summarized work that's been done on glacier impacts in the Himalayas since the (single justified) criticism against the last IPCC report was lodged, in reference to one sentence in it about those glaciers.

    It turns out that only about 2% of the water in the major Indian rivers derives from glacier melt, another 3% from annual snowmelt.  Most of it is due directly to the rains from any current year's monsoons.  (Impact on Chinese rivers wasn't discussed.)

    So there will be some fresh water problems on the subcontinent - especially for the coasts of India and Bangla Desh, where sea rise is exacerbated by continental subsidence, and fresh water drinking wells will be exposed to salinization. But it won't be driven to massive levels of deprivation by disappearance of the glaciers.

    The same review notes that the eastern Himalayas are losing glaciers at about the average global rate; but the western glaciers are actually growing (so far), because the more intense monsoons have been increasing snow fall.

    I've kept a sharp eye out for any good news on the climate change front. This story, and studies over the last few years showing that the thermohaline circulation (the North Atlantic conveyor) is more resilient to Greenland melt than scientists realized a decade ago, are pretty much the whole lot.  All the other vectors seem to point to accelerated nastiness.

    •  thanks (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ColoTim

      thanks for the info. It's always good to see well-researched information and even admission of successes. I think it makes the whole movement look better when we actually admit that there are bright spots in the midst of the major catastrophe.

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