Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Republicans are all poll denialists (82 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  I think the GOP is laying the groundwork to steal (0+ / 0-)

    The election. Results compared to polls are how we judge the validity of elections worldwide.

    •  So.. if Romney wins, the election was stolen? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TexasTom

      Definitely?

      The other possibility - i.e. that the polls are indeed using models skewed too far toward Dems - is impossible? Unthinkable?

      Just think about that for a sec.  If Romney were to win by vote fraud, they would have to flip 5 or 6 percentage points (at least) from the current polls.

      How exactly do you steal that many millions of votes?  Especially when the consensus around here is that vote fraud doesn't even exist?  Disenfranchise that many voters?  Most laws attempting to do so have been shot down.

      So.. how do you steal that many votes?

      •  4% lead or over (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        EcosseNJ

        will make it very hard for them to steal it.   Don't forget that right now half the country is voting already.  Campaigns really need to adjust to this time frame.  Their conventions were too late and Obama has been very smart to get out there early and often.

      •  Fair questions (0+ / 0-)

        It's not impossible, but pretty unlikely, that there's liberal bias in every single polling organization that nobody noticed until this election. A widespread methodology error is more plausible.

        How do you steal that many votes? By keeping Those People away from the polls, through "purges" of the voter rolls, underserving poor voting districts, and of course having ties with the voting machine companies. Those are some of the tactics that have avoided prosecution.

      •  they don't have to flip that many votes (0+ / 0-)

        These national polls aren't much help. They only need to flip votes in a few key states (Florida and Ohio anyone?).
        I agree that they are trying to lay the groundwork for stealing the election.
        A number of people around here have been saying that the only explanation for the utter failure of the Romney campaign is that they're not really trying. They know that they've already bought the elections that count.

    •  No not necessarily. This is all about turnout and (0+ / 0-)

      the screens used by polling firms to predict turnout.  If turnout is like 2008, then we win and the polls were right.

        If not, we might not win....but it doesn't mean it was stolen, just that the prediction of a 2008 turnout was incorrect and the poll screen used were incorrect.  

      •  I've been arguing .. (0+ / 0-)

        On another forum where it is stated that the difference in this election as opposed to 2008 is that white people will show up more this time versus 2008,a poster on that other forum stated that the white non-hispanic vote dropped relatively from 2004 to 2008 and this time around the demographic will look more like 2004. This demographic favors Romney.  I pointed out that yes the Asian vote went from 44.1% of all eligible voting age Asians voted in 2004, it went up to 47.6% in 2008. Now for Hispanics it went from 47.2% in 04 to 49.9% in 08, for Blacks it went from 60% in 04 to 64.7% in 08. The white-non hispanic went from 89.4% to 90% but the number of registered voters in that demographic went down a 100,000 from 04 to 08 despite an increase in population for the demographic of 3,000,000.

           I rebutted that he couldn't cherry pick since even if what he says about White non hispanic coming out more in 2012 versus 2008 ,almost assuredly 40% of that will probably vote Democratic furthermore if one read the Census Reports in age demographics the 75 and older crowd turned at 88.6% in 08 versus 86.8% in 04 or to the tune of 400,000 more voters in 2008 versus 2004,the 65 to 74 demographic went from 92.1% in 04 to 92.7% in 08 to the tune of 1,160,000 more votes in 08 versus 04 . One can also say the same as per the 55-64 age group  and  these three age groups favor Romney.

           These poll deniers want to use a certain years electorate  but as I feel like I've shown choosing a certain year might give you an a boost in a certain area BUT in reading through them you might find surprises that hurt.

        •  I made a mistake.. (0+ / 0-)

          In the  comparison of Hispanics,Blacks and Asians showing up I used the % of voting age adult citizens figures versus the % of registered voters I used for the three aforementioned age groups.. However the % of RV's actually voting for those 3 age groups did go up from 2004 to 2008 .

      •  likely voter models?? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        chrismorgan

        Look at last month's AP's poll showing Obama +10 in RV's but only +1 in LV however their likely voter model shows only 63% of registered voters  showing up to vote whereas in 1996 82.3% of RV's showed up,in 2000 85.5%, in 2004 88.5% and in 2008 89.6%. If history is any example people who are registering do show up for the most part.

        •  I think this is partly due to (0+ / 0-)

          increased computerization of voter roles, better scrutiny of voter registration forms (knocking out those with bad addresses, etc.) and just overall cleaning up of voter rolls.

          If you take people off when they move, just that would increase the percentage who vote, because if they're not there but not removed, they are counted as not voting.

          So if you had a precinct with 200 voters on the rolls, but 50 of those registrations had moved and not been purged off the rolls, you could have EVERY eligible voter in that precinct vote and STILL only have 75% of 'registered' voters vote.

          If the rolls get cleaned up (and computerizing them makes that much easier, since you can cross reference with death records and drivers licenses) it stands to reason that your voting percentage could increase substantially, even if the raw number of voters hadn't budged.

          •  I think you're making a strong assumption... (0+ / 0-)

            ...that AP knows who is actually registered.

            In that poll, 79% of respondents reported being registered.  In the 2008 Current Population Survey, 71% of voting age citizens reported being registered -- and even that was probably high. (The turnout numbers that bridav cites appear to be from the CPS.) So that probably accounts for part of the gap cited by bridav, but not all of it.

            Election protection: there's an app for that!
            Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

            by HudsonValleyMark on Tue Oct 02, 2012 at 01:44:42 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Yep... (0+ / 0-)

               That's where I got it from . I posted it because a lot of people say turnout is going to be so down but if one looks at the historical record if people register they vote.

            •  Ok I went back and (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              HudsonValleyMark

              I looked back at the AP poll which showed 1512 adults being interviewed ,of which 1282 reported being registered in their current domicile . AP then narrowed the 1282 registered voter figure down to 807 interviewees which is 63%  of the totaled  RV field.

                I'm just saying history seems to show that a far higher % of registered voters show up at the polls then what this poll shows.

              •  sure; just to recap... (0+ / 0-)

                If you're trying to figure out whether AP's likely voter model is reasonable, per se -- or how unreasonable it is?! -- I think it may be better to look at likely voters as a percentage of adults, which is about 53%. According to Michael McDonald, turnout in 2008 was about 57% of the voting age population -- which I think is a better standard of comparison, for this purpose, than voting-eligible population. So, it's off, but not crazy off.

                The point of a likely voter model isn't to estimate turnout; it's just to reduce bias in the sample. I think we'd need a lot more information to evaluate the AP poll on that score.

                All that aside, official statistics indicate that in 2008, something like 73% of registered voters turned out -- depending on how one handles Election Day Registration states. The CPS figure is higher, partly due to overreporting, but also because surveys don't pick up on "deadwood" in the registration rolls. Regardless of the exact figure one uses and why, I agree that most registered voters do vote in presidential elections. (The ones who don't, generally don't remain registered very long -- although that can vary a lot.)

                Election protection: there's an app for that!
                Better Know Your Voting System with the Verifier!

                by HudsonValleyMark on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 01:54:22 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

    •  Then what? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DSPS owl

      What do you suppose all the millions of Americans will do knowing this is just another stolen election?  Will they sit back and let them put the final nail in our country's coffin. That is exactly what would happen.  I can't stand the thought of them stealing it again.  It would not be pretty this time.

    •  Oh dear god (7+ / 0-)

      I swear, the fraudsters are as annoying as the birthers and poll conspiracy theorists.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site