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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU State of the Nation poll: Republicans are all poll denialists (82 comments)

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  •  I've been arguing .. (0+ / 0-)

    On another forum where it is stated that the difference in this election as opposed to 2008 is that white people will show up more this time versus 2008,a poster on that other forum stated that the white non-hispanic vote dropped relatively from 2004 to 2008 and this time around the demographic will look more like 2004. This demographic favors Romney.  I pointed out that yes the Asian vote went from 44.1% of all eligible voting age Asians voted in 2004, it went up to 47.6% in 2008. Now for Hispanics it went from 47.2% in 04 to 49.9% in 08, for Blacks it went from 60% in 04 to 64.7% in 08. The white-non hispanic went from 89.4% to 90% but the number of registered voters in that demographic went down a 100,000 from 04 to 08 despite an increase in population for the demographic of 3,000,000.

       I rebutted that he couldn't cherry pick since even if what he says about White non hispanic coming out more in 2012 versus 2008 ,almost assuredly 40% of that will probably vote Democratic furthermore if one read the Census Reports in age demographics the 75 and older crowd turned at 88.6% in 08 versus 86.8% in 04 or to the tune of 400,000 more voters in 2008 versus 2004,the 65 to 74 demographic went from 92.1% in 04 to 92.7% in 08 to the tune of 1,160,000 more votes in 08 versus 04 . One can also say the same as per the 55-64 age group  and  these three age groups favor Romney.

       These poll deniers want to use a certain years electorate  but as I feel like I've shown choosing a certain year might give you an a boost in a certain area BUT in reading through them you might find surprises that hurt.

    •  I made a mistake.. (0+ / 0-)

      In the  comparison of Hispanics,Blacks and Asians showing up I used the % of voting age adult citizens figures versus the % of registered voters I used for the three aforementioned age groups.. However the % of RV's actually voting for those 3 age groups did go up from 2004 to 2008 .

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