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View Diary: WI-Pres, WI-Sen...New Poll Numbers (28 comments)

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  •  We are entering the final phase the campaign (5+ / 0-)

    which has two parts:  Part I is debate season.  Part II is the final 3 week mad dash to the finish line.

    What the end of September polls tell us is that Obama steadily improved his position as compared to the beginning of September almost across the board.

    He has pushed two battlegrounds into a relatively safe status:  NH and WI, where he has posted high single digit to double digit leads.  Romney seems to have wound down his spending in NH, though he is maintaining a spending presence in WI.  

    Obama has average leads of 4-6 points in Iowa, Florida, Virginia and Colorado.  

    He has an average lead in Ohio and Nevada of greater than 5 points with a lot of data points approaching 10 points.

    He posted a lead in 4 out of the last 6 polls in NC, with one tie and one Romney lead (ARG-as someone who experienced ARG as a Kerry supporter in 2004, that is small comfort).

    No new states (e.g., PA, NM) have become GOP targets.

    The national polls generally range from O +3 to O+6.  RV polls push the margin over 5 points, generally speaking.  LV polls are somewhat tighter.

    If Obama has a good debate season, it will likely push 1-2 more states out of battleground territory and may make NC more winnable.  I think those two states could be Iowa and Nevada.  In Nevada, strong polling and voter registration advantages already suggest Democratic momentum.  Iowa is a little tougher, as there are few electoral strategies where Romney can win without it.  The polling is a bit tighter (just shy of 5 points), but the aggressive early voting combined with more independents leaning Obama could put this state out of reach for Romney mathematically towards the end of the month.

    FL, VA, CO, and OH will be fought out until the end so I don't expect the debates to have any lasting impacts there.

    A good debate season will probably mean that pollsters adjust their LV models to align more to RV results, which would have the net effect of pushing Obama's lead up to where some polls already have it.  This may not have a meaningful impact on election day but it might change the way the race is covered.  Instead of headlines like 'close race' you might see 'Obama maintains lead'.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Wed Oct 03, 2012 at 11:15:05 AM PDT

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