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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU poll: Obama voters are still excited (58 comments)

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  •  I am VERY suspicious of minority (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wu ming

    cross-tabs from IVR pollsters.

    The real story in my view remains with the 18-29 voter.  In polling we frequently see them at below the 2010 participation level, and I have my suspicions about cell phones being the cause, but we will see.

    More broadly, Romney has a 1.18% lead in state polling (which is all LV by the way) since the debate   There is little sign of a decline the bounce:Romney leads by .6 in polling taken 10/8.

    One troubling sign: debate bounces tend not to decline.  The race was permanently changed in both 2004 and 2000 by debate.

    Why people were writing they seldom changed the race is beyond me.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:11:16 AM PDT

    •  2004 not that clear cut (0+ / 0-)

      Kerry gained considerably after the first debate but declined about the same amount after the third debate. He recovered to make it close again, but I don't know that I would say the debates permanently changed the race. Neither the first Kerry bounce nor the later Kerry decline was permanent.

      And 2000 was just weird. Why did the media fixate on irrelevant issues so much after Gore initially won the first debate decisively according to polling?

      •  According to a researcher on Mark Riley (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        fladem, lina

        on WWRL this morning in nYC, Romney's bounce is LARGER than Kerry's was...i keep looking for solid good news to hang my hat on and I'm not finding it, just a few better numbers here and there.

        •  There is NO WAY (0+ / 0-)

          to put a positive spin on this.  I believe Romney now leads.

          The one thing to hang your hat on is the job approval numbers - which have not moved much in state polling.

          The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

          by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:42:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  approval numbers don't matter (0+ / 0-)

            if you are losing the election...so i am not impressed. I don't think there is a precedent for this. i said since a few days ago ( and people called me out on it ) that people seemed to be looking for an excuse to abandon Obama, and he gave them one. Not a real good one, but an excuse nonetheless. it's all they needed. This one is a kick in the balls because I really thought this was headed in the right direction, no praying for a miracle like Kerry or Gore. Obama needs a miracle. he needs Romney to shit himself on stage. Don't bet on it.

            •  There is a VERY high correlation (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lina

              between job approval and incumbent Presidential vote.

              A sitting President has never lost with an approval rating of over 49.  Ever.

              Obama is not going to collapse.  

              The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

              by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:51:13 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  You still feeling so negative, Leftangler, I (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Sophie Amrain

              thought some of that dissipated in the last day , i guess not ? You have been feeling consistently discouraged this entire week then> No bright spots at all?

              This is why I cannot come here right before I go to volunteer to GOTV. But having said that, I speak too broadly come to thnk of it. As the majority of people here are optimistic and doing tons of GOTV and keep my spirits up.  

              LeftAngler and FlaDem, I hope you still are GOTV despite polling and that you are able to find some motivation and energy when needed?

              Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

              by wishingwell on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 02:42:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Obama still leads in Swing States (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          manyamile, MBishop1
          Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

          In top 9 tipping point states (CO FL VA OH IA WI PA NH NV) RCP has Obama up 2.3% on average, http://Pollster.com  2.8%, 538 "now-cast" 2.4%.

        •  I just don't get it.. (0+ / 0-)

          "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

          by sillycilla on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 02:38:41 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Get what ? (0+ / 0-)

            Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

            by wishingwell on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 02:56:02 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  how one debate shifts the whole race.. (0+ / 0-)

              and that romney got a bigger bounce than kerry did against bush.. I just don't get it.

              "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

              by sillycilla on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 03:11:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  there are a few (0+ / 0-)

                reasons, or possible reasons.  Perhaps there was a lot of "soft" Obama support prior to the debate, the incumbent has that sort of thing to deal with.  Perhaps this was a race that was always going to tighten.  Obama is a known quantity now and the enthusiasm of the 2008 election has settled.  

                It's frustrating, I agree, but this is what it is and we have to deal with it - so GOTV.  That is all we can do in response.  Obama has more supporters.  If they vote, he'll win.  If they don't, Romney will.  THAT is something we can all affect.

                Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

                by KibbutzAmiad on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 03:46:59 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Yes and,... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        manyamile, Sylv

         Historically doesn't the challenger gain a few points just by being on stage with the president?

    •  Absolutely correct. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv

      PPP in particular and likely IVR pollsters in general  do not get representative numbers for minority or youth voters. See the recent entries in the Beyond the Margin of Error series.

      For youth, I keep my eyes on the Harvard survey.

      For the debate bounce, I think we have to factor in that we've had a lot of releases from Republican-leaning pollsters recently, but I think we still need to wait a little more before we can conclude much.

      •  Here is the list (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sylv

        of state pollsters, and their projected Obama lead.  It is true that nearly half since the debate come from right leaning pollsters (WAA, Rasmussen, Gravis) but the numbers from SurveyUSA and EPIC-MRA (not on this list) suggest similar shifts.  

        Photobucket

        Here is the 5 day moving average through 10/8.  This includes a few polls with predebate numbers - Romney has led in every day in state polling since 10/4.  Ironically, Sept 30th was Obama best day of polling of the year.
        Photobucket

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:40:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Thanks (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sylv, MBishop1

          I think the polls we've got so far should show us the peak of Romney's performance, and you definitely show us he's doing well. But polls that are in the field M-W will tell us if it is a bounce that recedes or a new baseline.

          •  The problem (0+ / 0-)

            is we are due for some new rw pollsters (Purple Strates) for one.

            In Florida the number of Romney signs have simply exploded - and this has happened all since the debate.

            I know Yard signs don't vote, but the same thing happened after the GOP convention here in 2004.  If you want to look on the bright side you can argue Romney is getting the equivalent of his convention bounce, and this will fade.

            The other thing to note: Ras and gallup show an upswing in consumer confidence - the single best predictor of presidential job approval.

            The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

            by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:49:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  one thing to keeo in mind (0+ / 0-)

      A lot of the state polling post debate has been from right wing pollsters who actually have had the same results even before the debate, ie rasmussen. The most important thing is to wait and see. I'd like to see the polls that started this week.

      •  and notice.. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sylv

        all those RW polls were done on the 10/4-5 and even at that Rassy showed stability in Ohio,Florida and Virginia. You then have Rasmussen of all pollsters showing Obama gaining in both Iowa & Colorado where he is in the lead for the first time all cycle according to this pollster.

          PPP and PEW also both had their polls ongoing during the 10/4-5.

        •  Gravis and Rasmussen (0+ / 0-)

          have both been in the field since 10/5,

          The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

          by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:43:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Yes,... (0+ / 0-)

            and Rasmussen's field work since 10/5 shows Obama ahead for the first time all cycle according to Rassy in both Colorado & Iowa. In his polls of Florida,Ohio & Virginia the needle hardly moved despite the polls being taken on 10/4-5. Now RCP just moved PA back to toss up because of recent polls by Susqehana & Sienna plus Rassmuussen did show Obama + 5 there after being up 12 last month however I never thought that Obama was up that muc to begin with.

              Gravis Marketing??? They were in Colorado 10/3-10/5 not exactly Obama's best period.

    •  Bush was also the incumbent and up in the polls (0+ / 0-)

      most of the time and then by election, most polls had it a dead heat and it was a very close election.  

      But Bush still won even if some dispute the result in Ohio.

      But in this case, Mitt has not really had a lead in nationside polls except for a few days this week. Time will tell if he increases or keeps that lead nationwide.

      Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

      by wishingwell on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 02:38:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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