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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU poll: Obama voters are still excited (58 comments)

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  •  2004 not that clear cut (0+ / 0-)

    Kerry gained considerably after the first debate but declined about the same amount after the third debate. He recovered to make it close again, but I don't know that I would say the debates permanently changed the race. Neither the first Kerry bounce nor the later Kerry decline was permanent.

    And 2000 was just weird. Why did the media fixate on irrelevant issues so much after Gore initially won the first debate decisively according to polling?

    •  According to a researcher on Mark Riley (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      fladem, lina

      on WWRL this morning in nYC, Romney's bounce is LARGER than Kerry's was...i keep looking for solid good news to hang my hat on and I'm not finding it, just a few better numbers here and there.

      •  There is NO WAY (0+ / 0-)

        to put a positive spin on this.  I believe Romney now leads.

        The one thing to hang your hat on is the job approval numbers - which have not moved much in state polling.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:42:01 AM PDT

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        •  approval numbers don't matter (0+ / 0-)

          if you are losing the election...so i am not impressed. I don't think there is a precedent for this. i said since a few days ago ( and people called me out on it ) that people seemed to be looking for an excuse to abandon Obama, and he gave them one. Not a real good one, but an excuse nonetheless. it's all they needed. This one is a kick in the balls because I really thought this was headed in the right direction, no praying for a miracle like Kerry or Gore. Obama needs a miracle. he needs Romney to shit himself on stage. Don't bet on it.

          •  There is a VERY high correlation (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            lina

            between job approval and incumbent Presidential vote.

            A sitting President has never lost with an approval rating of over 49.  Ever.

            Obama is not going to collapse.  

            The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

            by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:51:13 AM PDT

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          •  You still feeling so negative, Leftangler, I (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Sophie Amrain

            thought some of that dissipated in the last day , i guess not ? You have been feeling consistently discouraged this entire week then> No bright spots at all?

            This is why I cannot come here right before I go to volunteer to GOTV. But having said that, I speak too broadly come to thnk of it. As the majority of people here are optimistic and doing tons of GOTV and keep my spirits up.  

            LeftAngler and FlaDem, I hope you still are GOTV despite polling and that you are able to find some motivation and energy when needed?

            Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

            by wishingwell on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 02:42:03 PM PDT

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      •  Obama still leads in Swing States (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        manyamile, MBishop1
        Nate Silver ‏@fivethirtyeight

        In top 9 tipping point states (CO FL VA OH IA WI PA NH NV) RCP has Obama up 2.3% on average, http://Pollster.com  2.8%, 538 "now-cast" 2.4%.

      •  I just don't get it.. (0+ / 0-)

        "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

        by sillycilla on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 02:38:41 PM PDT

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        •  Get what ? (0+ / 0-)

          Follow PA Keystone Liberals on Twitter: @KeystoneLibs

          by wishingwell on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 02:56:02 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  how one debate shifts the whole race.. (0+ / 0-)

            and that romney got a bigger bounce than kerry did against bush.. I just don't get it.

            "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

            by sillycilla on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 03:11:33 PM PDT

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            •  there are a few (0+ / 0-)

              reasons, or possible reasons.  Perhaps there was a lot of "soft" Obama support prior to the debate, the incumbent has that sort of thing to deal with.  Perhaps this was a race that was always going to tighten.  Obama is a known quantity now and the enthusiasm of the 2008 election has settled.  

              It's frustrating, I agree, but this is what it is and we have to deal with it - so GOTV.  That is all we can do in response.  Obama has more supporters.  If they vote, he'll win.  If they don't, Romney will.  THAT is something we can all affect.

              Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

              by KibbutzAmiad on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 03:46:59 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Yes and,... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      manyamile, Sylv

       Historically doesn't the challenger gain a few points just by being on stage with the president?

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