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View Diary: Daily Kos/SEIU poll: Obama voters are still excited (58 comments)

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  •  Absolutely correct. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv

    PPP in particular and likely IVR pollsters in general  do not get representative numbers for minority or youth voters. See the recent entries in the Beyond the Margin of Error series.

    For youth, I keep my eyes on the Harvard survey.

    For the debate bounce, I think we have to factor in that we've had a lot of releases from Republican-leaning pollsters recently, but I think we still need to wait a little more before we can conclude much.

    •  Here is the list (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv

      of state pollsters, and their projected Obama lead.  It is true that nearly half since the debate come from right leaning pollsters (WAA, Rasmussen, Gravis) but the numbers from SurveyUSA and EPIC-MRA (not on this list) suggest similar shifts.  

      Photobucket

      Here is the 5 day moving average through 10/8.  This includes a few polls with predebate numbers - Romney has led in every day in state polling since 10/4.  Ironically, Sept 30th was Obama best day of polling of the year.
      Photobucket

      The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

      by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:40:31 AM PDT

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      •  Thanks (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Sylv, MBishop1

        I think the polls we've got so far should show us the peak of Romney's performance, and you definitely show us he's doing well. But polls that are in the field M-W will tell us if it is a bounce that recedes or a new baseline.

        •  The problem (0+ / 0-)

          is we are due for some new rw pollsters (Purple Strates) for one.

          In Florida the number of Romney signs have simply exploded - and this has happened all since the debate.

          I know Yard signs don't vote, but the same thing happened after the GOP convention here in 2004.  If you want to look on the bright side you can argue Romney is getting the equivalent of his convention bounce, and this will fade.

          The other thing to note: Ras and gallup show an upswing in consumer confidence - the single best predictor of presidential job approval.

          The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

          by fladem on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 09:49:13 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

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