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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: GOPer Scott DesJarlais pushed mistress/patient to have abortion (161 comments)

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  •  Gallup Now Has 32% Nonwhite Samples? (0+ / 0-)

    I made the mistake of reading Jay Cost's Weekly Standard article this morning.  We already knew that Gallup shifted to 50% cell phone samples, but is it also true that they arbitrarily increased their nonwhite samples to an unrealistic proportion of what the electorate will be?  If so, even the sole bright spot in this week's polling becomes suspect.

    •  Here is Blumenthal's take on this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Mark27
      •  A quote in that article (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        "As has always been the case," Newport stressed in his announcement, "we do not attempt to weight the composition of the likely voter sample in any way -- such as by political party or race or age -- to approximate some guess of what we or others think it should look like demographically on Election Day" (emphasis added). Gallup weights the larger adult sample to match Census estimates, but take no further steps to adjust the demographics of likely voters.

        That said, the recent methodological changes appear to have increased the percentage of non-white respondents in Gallup's weighted samples of adults, as noted by Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz in a HuffPost blog item posted earlier Wednesday.

        •  The conclusion of the article (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike

          Gallup has a long history as the most trusted survey brand in the world, a name virtually synonymous with public opinion polling. The changes announced Wednesday show a willingness to adapt many longstanding procedures to polling's new reality.

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