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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: GOPer Scott DesJarlais pushed mistress/patient to have abortion (161 comments)

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  •  For all the criticism the NBC OH poll seems (3+ / 0-)
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    LordMike, DCCyclone, itskevin

    to be getting, the CNN from a couple of days ago had a more Republican/less Dem sample, I believe and they basically found the same lead: 51-47 vs 51-45 in NBC's poll.

    Even Ras the day after the debate found Obama up 50-49.

    Maybe it wont be a 6 point lead, but Obama seems to have an edge in OH, and significantly, seems to be at 50%.

    •  And what about the VA partisan makeup (1+ / 0-)
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      Republicans were several points higher in their poll than in '08.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:05:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And therein lies the reason NOT to "unskew"... (0+ / 0-)

      ...any polls.

      It's a fool's game.

      It's awfully tempting and fun to pick apart turnout models and crosstabs, but as Chris Bowers has learned and I, too, have, it's foolish because public polls aren't done with the kind of precision to allow any intelligent picking apart.

      Your example, jj32, makes the point:  you get a more GOP sample, but somehow it doesn't change anything.  I remember looking at PPP's Colorado polls in 2010, and they would vary sometimes greatly the percentage of Hispanic voters in the sample, but somehow it didn't matter, and at times a sample with fewer Hispanics might actually have better results for Bennet than a sample in a different poll with more.

      The best way to evaluate pollsters beyond just checking their final numbers against actual results is to evaluate for how much volatilty they have in a race, especially when nothing is happening to move numbers, and how often they depart from the totality of polling and/or common sense about a race.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:56:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

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