Skip to main content

View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: GOPer Scott DesJarlais pushed mistress/patient to have abortion (161 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  Revised House Predictions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody

    This has nothing to do with pollmageddon, but I have succumbed to the power of the punditry.  I reduced from D+22 to D+16 last time, and now further reduce to D+10 - 21 up and 11 down.  Looking at what is contested, it seems unrealistic to believe we are even going to get a sniff at the majority, although I do think it is entirely possible we will do better than my +10 if we win more close races than Team Red.  This assumes we split the seriously contested races about 50-50.

    I have reduced my presentation to races I expect to flip or be within 10 (I used to do 20).  This includes all of the seriously contested races and a few more.

    AR-04 – Cotton (R) 57, Jeffress (D) 40

    AZ-01 – Kirkpatrick (D) 52, Paton (R) 48
    AZ-02 – Barber (D) 54, McSally (R) 46
    AZ-09 – Sinema (D) 51, Parker (R) 49

    CA-07 – Bera (D) 51, Lungren (R) 49
    CA-09 – McNerney (D) 54, Gill (R) 46
    CA-10 – Hernandez (D) 51, Denham (R) 49
    CA-24 – Capps (D) 54, Maldanado (R) 46
    CA-26 – Brownley (D) 53, Strickland (R) 47
    CA-36 – Bono Mack (R) 50, Ruiz (D) 50
    CA-52 – Peters (D) 53, Bilbray (R) 47

    CO-03 – Tipton (R) 52, Pace (D) 45
    CO-06 – Miklosi (D) 49, Coffman (R) 48

    CT-05 – Esty (D) 52, Roraback (R) 47

    FL-02 – Southerland (R) 51, Lawson (D) 49
    FL-10 – Webster (R) 52, Demings (D) 48
    FL-16 – Buchanan (R) 55, Fitzgerald (D) 45
    FL-18 – Murphy (D) 52, West (R) 48
    FL-26 – Garcia (D) 55, Rivera (R) 44

    GA-12 – Anderson (R) 51, Barrow (D) 49

    IA-02 – Loebsack (D) 53, Archer (R) 46
    IA-03 – Latham (R) 49, Boswell (D) 48
    IA-04 – King (R) 51, Vilsack (D) 48

    IL-08 – Duckworth (D) 56, Walsh (R) 44
    IL-10 – Schneider (D) 53, Dold (R) 47
    IL-11 – Foster (D) 53, Biggert (R) 47
    IL-12 – Enyart (D) 50, Plummer (R) 45
    IL-13 – Gill (D) 50, Davis (R) 50
    IL-17 – Bustos (D) 52, Schilling (R) 47

    IN-02 – Walorski (R) 51, Mullen (D) 44
    IN-08 – Bucshon (R) 52, Crooks (D) 45

    KY-06 – Chandler (D) 54, Barr (R) 46

    MA-06 – Tisei (R) 50, Tierney (D) 46

    MD-06 – Delaney (D) 56, Bartlett (R) 43

    MI-01 – McDowell (D) 50, Benishek (R) 47

    MN-02 – Kline (R) 55, Obermueller (D) 45
    MN-06 – Bachmann (R) 55, Graves (D) 45
    MN-08 – Nolan (D) 52, Cravaack (R) 48

    MT-AL – Daines (R) 53, Gillan (D) 44

    NC-07 – McIntyre (R) 51, Rouzer (R) 49
    NC-08 – Hudson (R) 54, Kissell (D) 46
    NC-11 – Meadows (R) 56, Rogers (D) 44
    NC-13 – Holding (R) 63, Malone (D) 37

    ND-AL – Cramer (R) 53, Gulleson (D) 44

    NH-01 – Shea-Porter (D) 50, Guinta (R) 47
    NH-02 – Kuster (D) 49, Bass (R) 48

    NJ-03 – Runyan (R) 52, Adler (D) 45

    NV-03 – Heck (R) 50, Oceguera (D) 47
    NV-04 – Horsford (D) 50, Tarkanian (R) 47

    NY-01 – Bishop (D) 53, Altschuler (R) 46
    NY-11 – Grimm (R) 54, Murphy (D) 45
    NY-18 – Hayworth (R) 50, Maloney (D) 47
    NY-19 – Gibson (R) 50, Schreibman (D) 50
    NY-21 – Owens (D) 52, Doheny (R) 47
    NY-24 – Maffei (D) 53, Buerkle (R) 46
    NY-27 – Collins (R) 49, Hochul (D) 49

    OH-06 – Johnson (R) 49, Wilson (D) 48
    OH-16 – Renacci (R) 50, Sutton (D) 50

    OK-02 – Mullin (R) 55, Wallace (D) 44

    PA-06 – Gerlach (R) 55, Trivedi (D) 45
    PA-07 – Meehan (R) 54, Badey (D) 45
    PA-08 – Fitzpatrick (R) 54, Boockvar (D) 46
    PA-12 – Critz (D) 52, Rothfus (R) 48

    RI-01 – Cicilline (D) 52, Doherty (R) 43

    TN-04 – Stewart (D) 52, DeJarlais (R) 48

    TX-14 – Weber (R) 51, Lampson (D) 44
    TX-23 – Canseco (R) 48, Gallego (D) 47

    UT-04 – Love (R) 50, Matheson (D) 47

    VA-02 – Rigell (R) 54, Hirschbiel (D) 46

    WA-01 – DelBene (D) 53, Koster (R) 47

    WI-07 – Kreitlow (D) 50, Duffy (R) 49
    WI-08 – Ribble (R) 53, Wall (D) 47

    WV-03 – Rahall (D) 55, Snuffer (R) 45

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:05:34 AM PDT

    •  Why do you think both (0+ / 0-)

      Tierney and Love (whom I was about to describe as McLovin') will win?

      Also, when you think it will be so close as to be 50-50, as in the case of CA-36, what makes you think it will tip to the Republicans?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:22:04 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Love (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone

        is because of the polling in the race, both public and Love's, unrebutted by a Matheson internal.

        Tierney is because it doesn't look like the cavalry is coming to help him very much.  DCCC canceled its Boston reservation.  Could be because he is safe or because he is FUBAR.  Based on what I have heard about the race, it seems more likely the latter.

        There's no science to how I designate the 50-50 races.  I assume there will be some and that they will split relatively evenly between flips and holds.  The only thing meaningful is that I consider NY-27 and IL-13 more likely to flip than CA-36, NY-19, and OH-16, but just by a hair.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:28:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I'm only remembering (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          spiderdem

          at most two polls from Love's campaign. Were there more I am not thinking of?

          As far as Tierney goes, that makes sense. But with him and with races like CA-36, I think that we will have the winds at our backs so that we win more than you think we will. That could just be my naivete/relentless optimism/obliviousness kicking in, but whatever the case, I think it's more likely that we have an impressive night all around than they do.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:34:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  what exactly have you heard about MA-06 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          besides the shitty polls with a ton of undecideds and sketchy toplines?

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:53:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Someone posted on here (not a usual) (0+ / 0-)

            who seemed to have local inside connections.  Wish I could track it down, but it was too long ago.  Said local pols think Tierney is in very bad shape.  More detail than that and it was pretty convincing (at least to me).  Then a bunch of shitty, sketchy polls came out shortly thereafter.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:13:25 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  I think that was BenjaminDisraeli (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              bumiputera

              and when has he ever had a positive word to say about D chances?

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:46:23 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I live in MA-7 (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Woody, bumiputera

              i.e. next door.   Tierney has tried going brutally negative on Tisei in the past couple of weeks and it's not working.  Tierney looks desperate and out of credibility/capital.  He's basically liquidating his political contribution account in the form of negative TV ads in the expectation that he'll lose and have no future in elected office, but it might just work.  

              Tisei is definitely a social liberal- out as a gay man and no hypocrisy about gay equality- and sincere cooperator with Democrats.  Though his base in the district is coastal WASP-y Republicans with a relative lot of money; they're a tribe that gets pretty ugly about taxes and property regulations.   If elected he's going to have to vote vote the hard Republican line on taxes, spending, etc.

              The district is temperamentally a moderate Democratic one overall but they'll put up with a not very offensive Republican a good portion of the time.  Serious corruption is probably fatal because parts of the district were represented by Nick Mavroulas or had to deal with his scandal next door in the Nineties.  Who was guilty as hell of iirc taking bribes and put up a dirty, ugly, and brutal fight against those who wanted him to resign when the evidence became incontrovertible.   That fight left scars.

        •  My only significant disagreements...... (3+ / 0-)

          I think Duckworth clocks Walsh by more than 20.  I say Walsh doesn't reach 40%.  Not only is he the worst possible Republican by profile and temperament in this already-impossible district, but he also is a lousy campaigner and that further costs him votes.

          And I'm guessing right now that Vilsack takes out King.  Her ads and her allies' ads have been OK at hammering King...not great but OK, plus she's done a decent job defining herself.  I'm guessing Presidential turnout and Obama eeking out the state does the job to erase King.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:02:39 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Did you see the DCCC (0+ / 0-)

            released an internal with Duckworth up 10?  I always thought she would win by more but adjusted internally.

            And in IA-04, PPP had a poll not too long ago with King up 3 that didn't make me feel great, but there still may be some upside for Vilsack.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:11:13 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Vilsack is the classic challenger (0+ / 0-)

              The reality of House races is that a lot of winning challengers trail the whole way until sometime in the final month, not uncommonly right up to the final week or two.

              So the trendline is all I cared about, the fact there was a favorable one was enough for me.

              Regarding Walsh, I just see this as a race that keeps trending away from him continuously without arrest.  He isn't a typical incumbent, he's a terrible guy with no redeeming traits in his public image, and now in a very Democratic district against a competent opponent.  That's a recipe for disaster for him, he's not remotely viable.

              Basically I see this playing out the way things played out for Alan Grayson in 2010, where he lost I would bet by a larger margin than any polling showed 3 weeks out.

              44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

              by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 11:53:35 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  You and I (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem, Christopher Walker, Woody

      Seem to be moving in sync with our total national swing prediction.  I had +20 two weeks ago, +17 the next week, and +12 right now.  That's virtually the same as +22/+16/+10.

      Paging through the list, we don't have a lot of disagreements on the seats...most of the really crazy, irrational republican incumbents in the swing districts (ie: Allen West, Joe Walsh, Sean Duffy, etc) lose while the generic republicans generally win.  What's funny is that we both have my home district of OH-16 going to a recount, except that I have Sutton winning and you've got Renacci.  That race could be decided by just hundreds of votes.

      Just eyeballing it, you've got CA-10 and TN-4 going blue, those stay red for me.  Meanwhile, I have PA-8, TX-23, FL-2, and the aforementioned OH-16 ending up in the blue column instead of staying red.  Really, the only one of those in which we disagree greatly is TN-4, but that's a strange situation right now where we're still waiting to see what the fallout ends up being for Desjarlais.

      •  Looks like DCCC may be giving up on (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody

        Boockvar in PA-08.  I had been optimistic about her too.  REALLY hope you're right about FL-02.  To good for me to believe.  TX-23 could go either way, but I was not encouraged by Canseco internal with no response known to me.

        I really feel good about CA-10.  Hernandez seems to be getting good press and is perfect for the district.  TN-04 is a judgment call, but I think what DeJarlais did is unforgivable even in deep red rural Tennessee (maybe especially there), and Stewart is as good as we could ask for to pick up the pieces of that.

        I actually completed mine before I saw yours, but held off posting it until today so I wouldn't be doing the same thing as you in the same thread.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:48:49 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I don't understand giving up on PA-8 (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody

          That is a D+ district in a blue state in a part of the state that is turning more democratic each election cycle.  The generic ballot numbers say that this is a seat that should turn over, or at the very least go down to the wire.  

          Then again, NJ-3 is only slightly more republican than PA-8 and it seems things aren't going well there either.  

          Honestly, I don't like the DCCC's strategy right now.  They are starting to triage seats that honestly, they won't get the majority without.  

          •  Yeah (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bumiputera

            I don't think the strategy is to get a majority.  I think it's to pick up as many as they can.  They would be targeting far more seats offensively if they were going for the majority.

            White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

            by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:53:22 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  you don't expect (0+ / 0-)

      CA-21 or CA-41 to even be within 10? (also, if 10 is the limit, why include AR-04? if it's because it's a pickup, then CA-41 belongs.)

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:52:55 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No. I had those at 14 and 12, respectively. (0+ / 0-)

        I did see the other day there was some tidbit about Hernandez closing.  Still no activity in support of him of which I am aware.

        AR-04 is on there because it is a pickup.  I don't consider CA-41 a pickup.  I consider it a new district that should go blue and I treat it as a hold.  It's a long story.  It all works out mathematically.  Trust me...

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:16:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Bleh (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem

      I couldn't do this for districts that I have never been to. Kudos to you for the effort

    •  Yeah, Dems aren't retaking the House... (0+ / 0-)

      ... unless Obama not only rebuilds a national lead, but rebuilds it to something like the 5-6 point margin he was approaching in September.

      Barring something like that at best we're hoping for about a dozen pickups, quite possibly less when we take into account likely Republican gains.

      •  Expect Democratic net gain and Republican majority (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        howarddream

        ...in regards to the fight for control of the U.S. House. Unless the Obama campaign COMPLETELY tanks, and I don't see that happening, Republicans aren't going to get a net gain of seats in the House, and unless the Romney campaign COMPLETELY tanks, Democrats aren't going to win a majority of seats of the House.

        "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

        by DownstateDemocrat on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 09:02:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Sorry (0+ / 0-)

      Old and confused, I need a key, please.

      The bold-faced names are different from the regular type names how?

      •  Bold face are Dem pickups. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Woody

        Bold face and italics are Republican pickups.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:51:09 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site