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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: GOPer Scott DesJarlais pushed mistress/patient to have abortion (161 comments)

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  •  Love (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DCCyclone

    is because of the polling in the race, both public and Love's, unrebutted by a Matheson internal.

    Tierney is because it doesn't look like the cavalry is coming to help him very much.  DCCC canceled its Boston reservation.  Could be because he is safe or because he is FUBAR.  Based on what I have heard about the race, it seems more likely the latter.

    There's no science to how I designate the 50-50 races.  I assume there will be some and that they will split relatively evenly between flips and holds.  The only thing meaningful is that I consider NY-27 and IL-13 more likely to flip than CA-36, NY-19, and OH-16, but just by a hair.

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

    by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:28:17 AM PDT

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    •  I'm only remembering (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      spiderdem

      at most two polls from Love's campaign. Were there more I am not thinking of?

      As far as Tierney goes, that makes sense. But with him and with races like CA-36, I think that we will have the winds at our backs so that we win more than you think we will. That could just be my naivete/relentless optimism/obliviousness kicking in, but whatever the case, I think it's more likely that we have an impressive night all around than they do.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:34:33 AM PDT

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    •  what exactly have you heard about MA-06 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bumiputera

      besides the shitty polls with a ton of undecideds and sketchy toplines?

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 07:53:33 AM PDT

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      •  Someone posted on here (not a usual) (0+ / 0-)

        who seemed to have local inside connections.  Wish I could track it down, but it was too long ago.  Said local pols think Tierney is in very bad shape.  More detail than that and it was pretty convincing (at least to me).  Then a bunch of shitty, sketchy polls came out shortly thereafter.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:13:25 AM PDT

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        •  I think that was BenjaminDisraeli (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera

          and when has he ever had a positive word to say about D chances?

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:46:23 AM PDT

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        •  I live in MA-7 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody, bumiputera

          i.e. next door.   Tierney has tried going brutally negative on Tisei in the past couple of weeks and it's not working.  Tierney looks desperate and out of credibility/capital.  He's basically liquidating his political contribution account in the form of negative TV ads in the expectation that he'll lose and have no future in elected office, but it might just work.  

          Tisei is definitely a social liberal- out as a gay man and no hypocrisy about gay equality- and sincere cooperator with Democrats.  Though his base in the district is coastal WASP-y Republicans with a relative lot of money; they're a tribe that gets pretty ugly about taxes and property regulations.   If elected he's going to have to vote vote the hard Republican line on taxes, spending, etc.

          The district is temperamentally a moderate Democratic one overall but they'll put up with a not very offensive Republican a good portion of the time.  Serious corruption is probably fatal because parts of the district were represented by Nick Mavroulas or had to deal with his scandal next door in the Nineties.  Who was guilty as hell of iirc taking bribes and put up a dirty, ugly, and brutal fight against those who wanted him to resign when the evidence became incontrovertible.   That fight left scars.

    •  My only significant disagreements...... (3+ / 0-)

      I think Duckworth clocks Walsh by more than 20.  I say Walsh doesn't reach 40%.  Not only is he the worst possible Republican by profile and temperament in this already-impossible district, but he also is a lousy campaigner and that further costs him votes.

      And I'm guessing right now that Vilsack takes out King.  Her ads and her allies' ads have been OK at hammering King...not great but OK, plus she's done a decent job defining herself.  I'm guessing Presidential turnout and Obama eeking out the state does the job to erase King.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:02:39 AM PDT

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      •  Did you see the DCCC (0+ / 0-)

        released an internal with Duckworth up 10?  I always thought she would win by more but adjusted internally.

        And in IA-04, PPP had a poll not too long ago with King up 3 that didn't make me feel great, but there still may be some upside for Vilsack.

        White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "This is Wendy's guys! This is Wendy's!" - Mitt Romney, October 9, 2012.

        by spiderdem on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 08:11:13 AM PDT

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        •  Vilsack is the classic challenger (0+ / 0-)

          The reality of House races is that a lot of winning challengers trail the whole way until sometime in the final month, not uncommonly right up to the final week or two.

          So the trendline is all I cared about, the fact there was a favorable one was enough for me.

          Regarding Walsh, I just see this as a race that keeps trending away from him continuously without arrest.  He isn't a typical incumbent, he's a terrible guy with no redeeming traits in his public image, and now in a very Democratic district against a competent opponent.  That's a recipe for disaster for him, he's not remotely viable.

          Basically I see this playing out the way things played out for Alan Grayson in 2010, where he lost I would bet by a larger margin than any polling showed 3 weeks out.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 11:53:35 AM PDT

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