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View Diary: Quinnipiac: O+5 VA, O+3 WI, R+1 CO (112 comments)

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  •  The NBC Ohio poll, however, WAS "skewed"... (0+ / 0-)

    ...towards Dems. Hate to say it, but it was. 40 D, 29, R, an 11 pt. advantage for Dems, when their previous OH poll was only a 5 pt. advantage. So I'd say that shaves off at least 2 or 3 pts from the 8-pt lead it shows.

    Just being realistic, here.

    •  In other words, we all know that if NBC's Ohio... (0+ / 0-)

      ...poll had been a BAD one and it had a 40 R, 29 D, we'd be screaming about it.

      So just pointing out that it had a much larder D sample, which would shave a couple of points off, I think.

      •  Did you see the early voting numbers? (8+ / 0-)

        18% OH votes in already 63-37 (or thereabouts I forget) Obama. So...

        If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

        by DoctorWho on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 11:10:26 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Considering 2008 was (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, wishingwell, Delilah

        39 Dem/31 Rep, yes, we would be screaming if this poll showed radically different numbers of 29 Dem/40 Rep.

        But as it stands, these numbers are not radically different from 2008's numbers. That may or may not hold up on Election Day. We don't know. But this poll found a lot of Dems who had already voted so they are included, obviously, among the poll's "likely voters". It just happens to be what the poll found, keeping in mind there's always a margin of error.

        I'm a dyslexic agnostic insomniac. I lie awake at night wondering if there's a dog.

        by rennert on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 11:13:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  This is the key to "likely voter" models (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          rennert, scamperdo, smartdemmg, cdub24

          Alot of the national polls use theoretical questions about enthusiasm to determine likely voter models.  Clearly, if someone has already voted, they count as a "likely voter" regardless of enthusiasm.  So any Dems disheartened by the debate but who have already voted still count as likely voters.  This is not necessarily the case in he national poll likely voter models.

          The early voting numbers also show the strength of the OH ground game.  And going forward, this means team Obama will have more volunteers focusing on fewer voters to get to the polls.

      •  Give it a rest with these skewed nonsense. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Supavash, Delilah, cdub24, askew

        These polls aren't skewed, when you get called they ask you who you are voting and what party you are in. You say democrat, you get marked has a democratic vote.

    •  I don't buy this (8+ / 0-)

      Just like I didn't buy the criticism of the Pew poll.  The electorate is as you find it.  Party ID is fluid, subject to daily shifts in enthusiasm.  

      At the time of the Pew poll, Obama supporters were bummed and less sure of voting.  Leaning Dems may have identified as independents.  

      The fact that they found 11% more Dems during this poll is a nice result in itself.  May not completely reflect the reality of election day, but it indicates that Ohio Dems are voting and enthusiastic.

      •  Exactly, they found a lot of Dems (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        wwjjd, wishingwell, Delilah

        who had already voted early. Those are banked votes so those people are definitely "likely voters" and included in the poll.

        Also, 2008 was 39 Dem/31 Rep. Not terribly off the mark of this poll's numbers of 40/29.

        I'm a dyslexic agnostic insomniac. I lie awake at night wondering if there's a dog.

        by rennert on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 11:10:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yep, its demos that matter, ID is far too fluid. ( (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bridav58

        and for national polls geography counts too.  I'd pretty much gaurantee that 1%s best polls are Southern respondent heavy - by as much as 50% for Pew. Since the south is lopsidedly pro-Thug even 'reweighing' won't really fix it to accurate %s (indeed, if enthusiasm is part of the Lv screen, it may add further bias to one party or the other depending on how the sample affects the top lines, explaining partly the huge swing from a very pro-O prior poll to current).

    •  That was my first thought (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rennert, bridav58, LordMike, missLotus

      HOWEVER, First Read mentions this:
      "The ideological makeup in this poll was 22 percent liberal, 32 percent moderate, 46 percent conservative, which is actually less moderate and more conservative than four years ago when it was 20 percent liberal, 45 percent moderate, and just 35 percent conservative, according to the exit poll."

    •  No it wasn't... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      cdub24

      Read the writeup... the LV screen was made more favorable to us because of all the early voting.  The early voting skewed the LV screen, not the bad polling.

      GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

      by LordMike on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 11:21:44 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  That is because 1.2 million people have voted (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LaurenMonica, smartdemmg, cdub24, askew

      already in Ohio and most of them went to Obama.  In other words 20% of the potential votes have already voted which are BANKED votes for Obama and can not change.

      That is why the poll is the way it is.

      That is how polls work.

      President Obama, January 9, 2012: "Change is hard, but it is possible. I've Seen it. I've Lived it."

      by Drdemocrat on Thu Oct 11, 2012 at 01:22:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  LV models are "skewing" towards Romney (0+ / 0-)

      everywhere on top of Nate's noted Republican tilt for LV models.

      In the Ohio poll, this is being corrected for to some extent by the massive early voting numbers which is causing more Dems than normal to make it through their LV screen.

      This shows that Obama has a lot of room to recover.

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