Skip to main content

View Diary: Quinnipiac: O+5 VA, O+3 WI, R+1 CO (112 comments)

Comment Preferences

  •  In other words, we all know that if NBC's Ohio... (0+ / 0-)

    ...poll had been a BAD one and it had a 40 R, 29 D, we'd be screaming about it.

    So just pointing out that it had a much larder D sample, which would shave a couple of points off, I think.

    •  Did you see the early voting numbers? (8+ / 0-)

      18% OH votes in already 63-37 (or thereabouts I forget) Obama. So...

      If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

      by DoctorWho on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 11:10:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Considering 2008 was (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, wishingwell, Delilah

      39 Dem/31 Rep, yes, we would be screaming if this poll showed radically different numbers of 29 Dem/40 Rep.

      But as it stands, these numbers are not radically different from 2008's numbers. That may or may not hold up on Election Day. We don't know. But this poll found a lot of Dems who had already voted so they are included, obviously, among the poll's "likely voters". It just happens to be what the poll found, keeping in mind there's always a margin of error.

      I'm a dyslexic agnostic insomniac. I lie awake at night wondering if there's a dog.

      by rennert on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 11:13:12 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This is the key to "likely voter" models (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        rennert, scamperdo, smartdemmg, cdub24

        Alot of the national polls use theoretical questions about enthusiasm to determine likely voter models.  Clearly, if someone has already voted, they count as a "likely voter" regardless of enthusiasm.  So any Dems disheartened by the debate but who have already voted still count as likely voters.  This is not necessarily the case in he national poll likely voter models.

        The early voting numbers also show the strength of the OH ground game.  And going forward, this means team Obama will have more volunteers focusing on fewer voters to get to the polls.

    •  Give it a rest with these skewed nonsense. (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Supavash, Delilah, cdub24, askew

      These polls aren't skewed, when you get called they ask you who you are voting and what party you are in. You say democrat, you get marked has a democratic vote.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

  • Recommended (141)
  • Community (68)
  • Baltimore (64)
  • Bernie Sanders (49)
  • Freddie Gray (38)
  • Civil Rights (36)
  • Hillary Clinton (26)
  • Elections (25)
  • Racism (23)
  • Culture (22)
  • Education (20)
  • Labor (20)
  • Law (19)
  • Media (19)
  • Rescued (17)
  • Economy (17)
  • Science (15)
  • 2016 (15)
  • Politics (15)
  • Texas (13)
  • Click here for the mobile view of the site