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View Diary: Quinnipiac: O+5 VA, O+3 WI, R+1 CO (112 comments)

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  •  Considering 2008 was (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, wishingwell, Delilah

    39 Dem/31 Rep, yes, we would be screaming if this poll showed radically different numbers of 29 Dem/40 Rep.

    But as it stands, these numbers are not radically different from 2008's numbers. That may or may not hold up on Election Day. We don't know. But this poll found a lot of Dems who had already voted so they are included, obviously, among the poll's "likely voters". It just happens to be what the poll found, keeping in mind there's always a margin of error.

    I'm a dyslexic agnostic insomniac. I lie awake at night wondering if there's a dog.

    by rennert on Wed Oct 10, 2012 at 11:13:12 PM PDT

    [ Parent ]

    •  This is the key to "likely voter" models (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rennert, scamperdo, smartdemmg, cdub24

      Alot of the national polls use theoretical questions about enthusiasm to determine likely voter models.  Clearly, if someone has already voted, they count as a "likely voter" regardless of enthusiasm.  So any Dems disheartened by the debate but who have already voted still count as likely voters.  This is not necessarily the case in he national poll likely voter models.

      The early voting numbers also show the strength of the OH ground game.  And going forward, this means team Obama will have more volunteers focusing on fewer voters to get to the polls.

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