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View Diary: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 10/12 (afternoon edition) (141 comments)

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  •  I think the DSCC is wasteful (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, bear83

    They wasted 500k on Maine and now they are wasting 650k on CT; that money would be better spent winning AZ.

    Pencils aren't for eating. Trust me.

    by Hamtree on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:25:25 PM PDT

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    •  They put a million overall into AZ-Sen. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      James Allen, itskevin, Woody

      It was a recent buy.

      Age 23. Voting in NJ-03. Lived most of life in NJ-01. Had Rush Holt represent me during my undergrad years and am now represented by Frank Pallone in my grad school.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:27:45 PM PDT

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    •  Wasteful? (5+ / 0-)

      How is that a waste?  Murphy doesn't have it locked up and McMahon is spending like a drunken sailor.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:33:07 PM PDT

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      •  Yea he does... (0+ / 0-)

        When your opponent has already saturated the media market for a month plus and you still lead in the polls by several points in a Democrat state BEFORE it is revealed that your opponent wants to get rid of SS and Medicare its a slam dunk

        Pencils aren't for eating. Trust me.

        by Hamtree on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:36:57 PM PDT

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        •  So (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen

          you're logic is that the trendline is in her favor because she's made it a race by wildly outspending us... so we should continue to allow ourselves to be outspent at the same rate, because we're not losing -- yet -- in a state we should be wining in a blowout. That makes no logical sense. It's also not true that spending $1.2M in AZ is as effective use of resources as spending $600K in AZ and CT. The latter devision, assuming all else equal, will move more net voters. Because while at a certain point there's media saturation, yes, but there's a media saturation point for each party involved. You almost seem to be arguing that McMahon spending $10M is the same as her spending $5M, and Murphy spending $5M. It's a bizarre way to look at media saturation and is not accurate at all. So while McMahon may well have reached her saturation point -- it's possible, I just don't want to dick around so we can find out November 7 if she did -- we certainly haven't reached ours, and it's almost definitely a better use of resources than dumping another $600K into, say, ND, where all parties involved are well past the point of saturation. As a general rule, I'm usually in favor of putting down money for a certain basic level of saturation in almost any competitive or potentially competitive race. It's just the safe way to play, and the DSCC, by its very nature, will always play safe. As for AZ... the DSCC has enough resources to walk and chew gum. They can spend in more than one state.

          (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

          by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:53:44 PM PDT

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        •  A Democrat state? n/t (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, DCal, HoosierD42
    •  And North Dakota (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Christopher Walker

      Every Senate seat counts the same.

      NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

      by bear83 on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 12:34:13 PM PDT

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    •  Both need help (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      JGibson

      Sorry neither CT or ME were locks for the Dems, especially considering that 1.) McMahon has spent, what, over $70 million now over the past few years?  And polls have it tied at best recently.  This is far from safe - you also have to consider all of the Wall Street people living in CT that (based on recent polls) have turned sour on OBama.  And 2.) We saw the dangers of a 3 way race for ME-Gov in 2010, if Dill & King split the Dem vote equally Summer could squeak out with a win.

      King might not be the best choice for the Dems but it's better than keeping the seat in R hands...

      •  CT-Sen, ME-Sen (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, JGibson

        Linda McMahon is the former CEO of the world's largest professional wrestling promotion, World Wrestling Entertainment, and, as a result, has a considerable fortune to spend on a U.S. Senate campaign in Connecticut. The DSCC needs to back up Murphy in order to counter McMahon's money advantage.

        The U.S. Senate race in Maine is a three-way race that consists of Angus King, an independent candidate who is regarded by the NRSC as the de facto Democratic candidate, Cynthia Dill, the actual Democratic nominee, and Charlie Summers, the actual Republican nominee. The DSCC's strategy here should be to run a bunch of anti-Summers ads painting him as a far-right candidate in an attempt to hold Summers down to below 33 1/3%+1 of the vote, if all possible, since it's not known whether or not King will caucus with the Democrats, but it's more likely that King will do so than it would be for him to caucus with the Republicans, since the NRSC regards him as Summers's main opponent.

        "Rahm Emaunel is the leader of the Scott Walker Wing of the Democratic Party!" -Me

        by DownstateDemocrat on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:04:13 PM PDT

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      •  Really? (0+ / 0-)

        So ME a state where the lead started at like 20pts and the lead is still around there wasn't a slam dunk?
        in CT McMahon has saturated the airwaves for 4 years now; shes not going to get any new voters then she already has. CT is a slam dunk wasting another 500k to just piss away is absurd when there are 4 states that actually need it

        Pencils aren't for eating. Trust me.

        by Hamtree on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 01:55:08 PM PDT

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    •  I would argue that (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jncca

      after Nebraska, North Dakota, and Montana, Connecticut may be the most likely pickup for the GOP.  Perhaps Virginia is tied with them.

      I also think Romney may well be within striking distance in Connecticut post-debate.  It is possible, although rather unlikely that Romney could pull off a huge upset in CT if he advertises there and Obama does not.

      WI-8 independent. Very reluctantly for Obama but support Tammy Baldwin with a bit more enthusiasm. Strongly opposed recall of Gov. Walker.

      by WiscIndy on Fri Oct 12, 2012 at 05:05:04 PM PDT

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